Joe Biden could retire from office in January 2025 as one of the most accomplished presidents in U.S. history, and probably the most accomplished one-term president. Instead, he appears determined to embark on a second-term campaign that even a sizable portion of his Democratic admirers would dread for the simple, inalterable fact of his age.
For a first-term chief executive to willingly forgo reelection is relatively rare in America’s history. But Biden’s advanced age in the White House is completely without precedent and is problematic in both perception and reality. At 80, Biden is older halfway through his first term than any sitting president has been at any point in his tenure. Even his most ardent fans have to admit that it shows. At the end of a hypothetical second term, he would be 86 — roughly a full decade older than the average American male life expectancy.
For his legacy, his party and his country, Biden should strongly consider the historic step of announcing that he will retire after his current term.
It would be a big step and would not be without significant risk for his party. Democrats have a tendency to lean left when the slate of candidates is open. Biden has had a healthy moderating influence that helps to pull independents and anti-Donald Trump Republicans to the Democratic side. It’s far from clear whether someone other than Biden could accomplish that, and the stakes of failure are exceedingly high given Trump’s grip on the GOP base. There’s enough time, though, for Biden to begin cultivating a charismatic candidate who adheres to his moderate brand.
Biden’s most important accomplishment as president was arguably his first: Convincingly winning the office and leading America back to political solid ground after four years of Trump’s norm-breaking, Constitution-disgarding, toxic presidency. It’s perhaps no coincidence that Biden’s persona as the epitome of a lifelong establishment politician finally worked for him instead of against him in 2020 (his third try), as Americans sought to grope their way out of the Trumpian rabbit hole and back to something like normalcy.
Like any president, Biden has had successes and failures. His botched withdrawal from Afghanistan, and his real if overstated contribution to inflation with his excessive stimulus spending stand among the latter.
But overall, the balance sheet tips overwhelmingly to the positive. Having inherited an economy still hobbled by a mismanaged pandemic, Biden has been a steady hand, presiding over the creation of 10 million new jobs and a 50-year low in unemployment. He guided to passage and signed into law historic legislation on infrastructure, climate change, health care, marriage rights, and the first significant gun-safety legislation in a generation — all with a deeply divided Congress. His global leadership in support of Ukraine’s resistance to Russia’s invasion has been virtually Churchillian.
Why even consider retirement while on such a roll? The ghost of Ruth Bader Ginsburg might have something to say about that.
The late Supreme Court justice’s story is instructive, at least to a point: A liberal stalwart and top champion of abortion rights, Ginsburg refused calls to retire during President Barack Obama’s term (when she was already in her 80s) rather than risk dying in office under a Republican successor. Then she did just that, allowing Trump to replace her with Justice Amy Coney Barrett, thus padding the court’s conservative majority and ultimately dooming abortion rights in half the country.
The comparison isn’t perfect; should Biden die in office, his vice president would automatically succeed him. The opposing party wouldn’t get to replace him. But like Ginsburg, Biden is asking his supporters to risk an outcome they didn’t choose, based on an assurance he can’t realistically give: that he will continue to outlive biological averages.
That brings up the politically delicate issue of Kamala Harris. The reason for the vice president’s lack of popularity with Americans is debatable, but the fact of it isn’t. Yet her place in history as the first woman of color (any color) in national office means Biden couldn’t realistically jettison her from the ticket in a second presidential run without enraging progressives who are already on the line about him.
In her defense, she has largely been stuck in Washington on standby for the first half of Biden’s term to serve as the tie-breaking vote in an evenly divided Senate, where she serves as president. The inability to travel has limited her ability to attend ceremonies, deliver speeches and raise her profile.
Regardless, another Biden-Harris campaign seems inevitable. Which would give pause to independents and moderate Republicans who might be inclined to support Biden over Trump — unless they decide such support invites the unintended consequence of a President Harris should Biden not make it through his second term.
There’s no denying that Biden at 80 sometimes comes off as frail and confused. Those willing to consider the entirety of his leadership in word and deed, instead of cherry-picking verbal mishaps, will still find a competent if not entirely eloquent statesman. But in American politics, image is, for many voters, reality. There’s a fake video circulating of Biden appearing to fall asleep during an interview. Although it’s been debunked and its creator has admitted to concocting it, it continues to circulate and attract believers among people who need little convincing because of Biden’s other age-related gaffes and missteps.
The real danger of a Biden reelection campaign, then, isn’t that his age would necessarily undermine his second term but that he wouldn’t be able to win one in an environment where conservatives are looking for any way to diminish him.
Society as a whole is youth-obsessed. The stakes are epic. A Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley presidency would threaten to undo all that Biden has accomplished. The existential danger to democracy of another Trump presidency cannot be overstated.
Biden’s thinking in signaling he will run for reelection may well hinge on the fact that he beat Trump before. That doesn’t necessarily mean he could do it again, but the lack of another Democrat of national stature who could potentially take the helm is among the factors discouraging Biden from stepping aside.
Every election is different, and the next one will be decided by voters four years removed from the cultural and political malevolence of Trump’s first term. Biden’s age is showing more now than it was in 2020. His party’s progressive wing is more emboldened by successes in places like St. Louis and Chicago, and may be less willing to accept the compromise they did last time in supporting him.
A center-left coalition was and still is the best path to a Democratic presidential victory in 2024, but that doesn’t mean Biden is the only one who can carry that torch. The sense that Democrats have no bench has been created mainly by Biden’s shadow; serious presidential aspirants seldom challenge sitting incumbents of their own party.
Were he to announce his retirement, Biden could immediately begin elevating a potential successor who shares his moderate liberalism. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries and California Gov. Gavin Newsom come to mind. There are others.
For a lifelong political creature like Biden to step down from the office he first pursued more than 30 years ago would be a Herculean gesture of sacrifice. It would demonstrate to voters who have seen the worst of the GOP in Donald Trump what the best of responsible public service looks like in the Democratic Party. It would put Biden in the company of no less than George Washington, who also stepped down when he didn’t have to — for the good of the country.
Biden should think long and hard about what he would accomplish with a second run versus what it would risk for the nation — and for his own place in history.
