China’s demographic issue has continued to draw attention and arouse heated debate. According to the latest population data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s population saw a net increase of 480,000 in 2021, with a natural growth rate as low as 0.34%. Soon afterward, the National Health Commission convened a press conference regarding the low fertility rate. As a basic factor for economic and social development, it is only natural that this issue has become a topic of wide concern. Demographic change is a long-term process, and once the fertility rate drops, it is extremely difficult to reverse it. However, targeted policies can be developed, and governments at all levels can take action to manage the trend.
In recent years, China’s newly born population has continued to fall, and women of childbearing age have an increasingly low desire to have children, indicating that the “universal two-child policy” has not been as effective as expected, and further optimization of childbearing policies should be put on the agenda. In August 2021, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress approved the amendment to the “Population and Family Planning Law of the People’s Republic of China,” formally incorporating the three-child policy into the law and removing the provisions on social support fees and related punishments that had been in place for many years. At present, 25 provinces have completed the revision of population and family planning regulations, and some have made implementation plans to encourage more births. In many places around China, maternity leave has been extended by 30 to 90 days, and “childcare leave” has been added. Some prefectural and municipal governments have also introduced cash incentives such as fertility allowances (subsidies). However, it is still too early to say whether these measures will effectively alleviate China’s low fertility dilemma.
Population development has its own laws determined by the combined effect of various factors, such as politics, economy, culture and society. Therefore, the inertia is extremely strong, making it impossible to control through policy. It is generally believed that a fertility rate of 2.1 is needed for a country or region to maintain the normal replacement level; if it drops below 1.5, it is extremely difficult to reverse it. Low fertility rates are a social problem in most developed countries, not just China. Of course, this does not mean that their governments are totally helpless when it comes to managing their populations. Countries in Northern and Western Europe have made great efforts to encourage childbearing, and countries like France and Denmark have achieved remarkable results. Their policies aims include reducing families’ childbearing and parenting costs through government measures such as childbearing subsidies.
Compared with European and North American countries, China’s low fertility problem has more complex causes, in particular the one-child policy adopted decades ago. Addressing it requires us to first identify the factors affecting the fertility intentions of Chinese people, to then find out which are primary and which are secondary.
With regard to the continuous decline in the number of births in China in recent years, the National Health Commission believes that it is caused by multiple factors: First, the number of women of childbearing age, especially women of peak childbearing ages, has declined; second, younger people’s concept of marriage and childbearing has significantly changed; third, the high costs for childbearing, parenting and education have increased people’s fertility concerns. Obviously, the first two are difficult to reverse in a short period of time through policies. Especially during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period, women aged 20 to 34 — the peak period for fertility — decreased by 3.4 million annually on average, and the number in 2021 was 4.73 million lower than the previous year. This is an important reason for the sharp decline in the number of births. Yet, there is much governments at all levels can do to reduce the costs for childbearing, parenting and education. Affected by housing, education, employment and many other problems alongside China’s economic and social development, the costs for childbearing, parenting and education remain high, deepening the childbearing concerns of young people. High costs, coupled with poor supporting policies and insufficient public services such as child care, have made young people more hesitant about having children. These “pain points” demand prompt solutions from relevant departments.
Encouraging childbearing is a systematic project involving multiple sectors including finance, medical care, housing, social security, employment, education and childcare services that requires support from the government. Looking at examples from abroad, in a bid to encourage childbearing, governments must make tangible efforts to reduce the costs for childbirth, parenting and education. As economist Ronald Coase put it, “a promise that costs nothing is not worth trusting.”
To reduce the costs, it is necessary to “suit the remedy to the case.” The cost of childbearing should be co-borne by the government, businesses and families. Whether pro-birth policies, such as extended maternity leave, will work as expected depends on who pays most of the costs for the policies. If businesses have to pay the costs, they are likely to employ fewer women of childbearing age, which will discourage women from entering or returning to work and then make them be more afraid of having children. That is, while extending maternity leave seems to improve women’s fertility benefits, it is likely to worsen the “fertility penalty” that women already face, which reduces the effectiveness of relevant fertility policies. As local governments have only stipulated how many days of maternity leave will be extended, some people are questioning whether the policy will be “a treat of the government paid by businesses.” To eliminate misunderstandings, supporting measures must be introduced.
For some time, views and opinions about birth encouragement abound. Some suggest introducing favorable scoring policies for the national college entrance exam, known as the “gaokao,” while some others propose printing more money. It is the right of citizens to speak freely, but the government must consider the practicalities of these suggestions and assess their effectiveness rather than get lost facing them.
At this moment, the relevant departments should handle the issue of demographic change in a practical and realistic way, seriously reflect on gains and losses of population policies from the past decade and tackle the current severe situation. Only on this basis will all local governments and departments be able to formulate comprehensive, coordinated measures and accelerate the construction of a policy system to encourage births, including the provision of adequate subsidies and tax concessions, and the establishment of more child care institutions.
People are the goal, not the tool. Families should be a priority in childbearing decision-making considerations. It is easy to test the effects of measures encouraging childbirths. For example, we can look to see if they reduce the costs of businesses while alleviating burdens on families, especially on women of childbearing age, and eliminating the worries of those who want to have children. To this end, the whole society must effectively protect the rights and interests of children, women and seniors according to the law and create a childbearing- and family-friendly social environment as soon as possible. Ultimately, relevant reforms should be deepened to stimulate social vitality, making sure that even if the trend of sub-replacement fertility cannot be reversed, economic prosperity, social peace and people’s happiness are still possible.
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