Boris Johnson survived a Conservative Party no-confidence vote. Still, the bruising he took from his fellow Tories and his falling fortunes among British voters do not inspire confidence that the United Kingdom's prime minister is out of political trouble.
The specific issue that triggered the snap intraparty plebiscite is what Brits refer to as "partygate" — Johnson's serial violations of his own government's COVID-lockdown rules to hold boozy parties at No. 10 Downing Street, the prime minister's residence.
The hypocrisy to the public and Parliament was glaring, especially as Johnson's government appeared to be behind the curve in responding to the pandemic. (Johnson himself contracted COVID and spent days in intensive care.) Brits' disappointment in their leader is reflected in falling poll numbers and in a telling anecdote during the recent royal celebration: loud booing could be heard as Johnson and his wife Carrie arrived at St. Paul's Cathedral for a thanksgiving service for the queen.
That reaction reflected his reeling support, which is diametrically different from the sweeping mandate he led the Tories to in 2019 with the promise to "get Brexit done." He did. But then, upended by the pandemic and seeming without a broader agenda, his political progress stalled and may stall more as economic headwinds and still unresolved Brexit issues with Northern Ireland loom. Although party rules dictate that a year must pass before another no-confidence vote, rules can be changed.
Or, this week's vote itself may create its own momentum. Indeed, while previous Conservative prime ministers have also weathered no-confidence votes, most haven't stayed long. That includes Margaret Thatcher and Johnson's predecessor, Theresa May, who performed better than Johnson's 211-148 no-confidence vote total. But within months, May was out, a fate that may await Johnson, particularly as ambitious party members sense his weakness.
Strength, however, characterizes Johnson's leadership on Ukraine. He's been staunchly supportive of the beleaguered nation in its existential fight against Russia, sending arms to the front and going to Kyiv to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a show of personal solidarity. Even though the U.K. is no longer part of the European Union, it's still a cornerstone of NATO. Johnson has been a leader on Ukraine among fellow European prime ministers, presidents and chancellors.
"There's no question that he's been absolutely forthright and very steadfast," Andrew Marshall, senior vice president for engagement at the Atlantic Council, told an editorial writer. Marshall, who covered Johnson in his years as a British journalist based in Brussels, London and Washington, said that if Johnson were to leave eventually, "any future Conservative leader will be no different, and it's probably unlikely that any other political party would be different, either. There's a remarkable consensus about this and the desire to do the right thing."
Doing the right thing regarding the U.S.-U.K. "special relationship" would likely extend beyond Johnson, too. "There's a depth of institutional connection that goes beyond Downing Street, beyond the prime minister's office," Marshall said, much in the way Washington's institutions offer continuity with London regardless of which party or president is presiding over the U.S. at the time.
The continuity on the essential support of Ukraine and the enduring partnership between America and Britain should reassure citizens and leaders in both countries. But a turbulent world may become more so as Johnson tries to shore up the shaky confidence his colleagues and country have in him.
