To put it bluntly: Newcastle United’s points tally is below par right now. Most supporters would agree that the current total does not reflect the level of performances witnessed so far this campaign.
Bournemouth aside, the Magpies have been pleasing on the eye in the opening seven games in 2022-23. However, just one win in seven paints a worrying picture. Should supporters be concerned?
Delving into the stats deeper - and not just looking at what is on the tin - provides promise on how Eddie Howe has implemented his style. Before his arrival, Newcastle averaged 38.25% possession - compared to 50.4% this season - despite facing Manchester City and Liverpool.
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United also managed, on average, 11.4 shots per game before the 44-year-old’s appointment. This figure is dwarfed by the 15.4 per game fans have observed since August.
New phenomenon xG - meaning expected goals - is a statistic that mathematically calculates the quality of a chance to work out how many goals a side should have scored in a game. On this metric, Howe comes up trumps too, with 1.62 per game exceeding Steve Bruce (0.84) and his own record from January onwards (1.19).
This seems all well and good - but football is a results-driven business. So far, Newcastle remain a fraction away from where they would like to be in the table.
Poor refereeing calls can be blamed but a toothless Toon attack must accept responsibility, too. Newcastle’s new-found ability to impose themselves on the opposition is undeniable but a lack of cutting-edge in front of goal should trigger alarm bells.
Why? Because the signs have been there for a long time.
Even though the Magpies were on a stellar run of form from January onwards, there was still cause for concern. From Chris Wood’s bullet header at Southampton on March 10 to Bruno Guimaraes’ last-minute winner against Leicester City on April 17, Newcastle went 508 minutes - almost eight-and-a-half hours - without scoring from open play.
Howe’s side relied on set-pieces to nick results while firing blanks at Chelsea and Everton. Alarmingly, the Magpies only scored more than one goal in 12 out of their 40 games (30%) in all competitions last season. They were also 18th in the league for “big chances created”, averaging less than one per game (34). For context, Brentford were eighth with 50 created throughout the season.
Lacking a ruthless streak in front of goal could be levelled at recent injury woes. Callum Wilson, the club’s most clinical finisher, has only played 47 Premier League games out of a possible 83 (57%) games since joining in 2020. Despite missing most of last season, the number nine still finished as top goalscorer with eight goals.
Throw in Allan Saint-Maximin’s recurring niggles and you have a potent mix for Newcastle’s sterile frontline. Howe has created the philosophy to flourish, he just needs all of his tools in working order to carry out the job.
Keeping those two players fit is essential to achieve success in May - wrap them up in cotton wool if necessary. Supporters are yet to see a potentially devastating three-pronged attack of Saint-Maximin, Wilson and Alexander Isak and, with a solid platform behind them, another tidal wave of results could be around the corner.
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