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Fortune
Fortune
Sydney Lake

Top economist who predicted 2008 housing crash says the commercial real estate bubble is about to burst

Renowned economist Gary Shilling predicts that the commercial real estate bubble will burst. (Credit: Bloomberg/Getty Images)

While a lot has recovered and rebounded since the pandemic (think Thanksgiving travel and gathering en masse), work environments seem forever changed. The pandemic emptied office buildings as we once knew them, and central business districts suffered. Commercial real estate is still reeling at the massive shift toward remote or hybrid work, and an unwillingness to hold onto brick-and-mortar properties with the ease of e-commerce. It’s a mystery: Traffic to downtown business districts has more than recovered, but people just aren’t going back to offices.

There’s been signs for a while that commercial real estate is a bubble that’s about to burst. WeWork’s bankruptcy filing earlier this month was an $18 billion canary in the coal mine, as the fallen co-working giant immediately moved to shed dozens of leases in New York City alone. A legendary Wall Street forecaster warns that the whole space is set to implode.

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