The threat of further rate hikes from the Fed continues to hang over the stock market like a wet blanket. The markets are discounting the odds at 12% for a +25 bp rate hike at the September 20 FOMC meeting and 37% for that +25 bp rate hike at the November 1 FOMC meeting.
The stock market is not likely to release to the upside until there is no threat of another rate hike, the chances recede for a fresh banking crisis, and there is virtually no chance of U.S. recession.
