Thailand's e-commerce market is expected to experience slower growth from this year's estimated 18%, dipping to single digits in 2023 as more shoppers return to stores after Covid infections eased, says the Thai E-Commerce Association (Theca).
Thanawat Malabuppa, the association's president, said the total value of e-commerce is on course to reach 817 billion baht by the end of the year, representing an increase of 18% over 2021.
The outlook for next year is not as promising, he said.
"Next year the market is expected to grow by single digits," said Mr Thanawat, who is also chief executive and co-founder of Priceza Group, a shopping search engine and comparison platform with a presence in six countries in Southeast Asia.
He said e-commerce market growth has been on a rollercoaster during the pandemic. While the e-commerce market expanded 140% in 2020, the rate of growth declined to just 75% last year.
Among the factors contributing to slower growth was a shift in consumer behaviour as retail stores and shopping centres began to reopen, said Mr Thanawat.
Sales growth in 2022 among leading online platforms such as Lazada and Shopee should not differ greatly from the levels recorded last year, he said.
The top three product categories dominating the e-commerce market this year are electronic gadgets, home and living items, and beauty and fashion products.
"Big retailers reported significant growth in revenues since the government relaxed restrictive measures. The number of sales is almost comparable with the pre-pandemic level," said Mr Thanawat.
"We can see more consumers are returning to in-store shopping. After such a long period of lockdown, people were desperate to spend more time outside in the real world."
However, e-commerce's role in supporting business remains vital, he said. Half of consumers who shop in-store utilise information from online sources, said Mr Thanawat, adding influencer marketing continues to make a significant contribution to consumer decision-making.
Another potential boost for the e-commerce market is the recovery of the tourism sector, he said.
As more expatriates and long-stay tourists visit the country, they will be keen to find online platforms that provide them with an efficient shopping experience, said Mr Thanawat.
Regarding the recent interest rate hike, he said the e-commerce market would not feel much impact because it is unlikely consumers would stop shopping online.
Mr Thanawat pointed to other Southeast Asian markets where rates had risen to 3%, more than double Thailand's current rate of 1.25%.
