Last week was a wild one in the markets. The S&P 500 ($SPX) (SPY) ended the week basically flat, but that does not do the wild moves this week justice. Perhaps one of the biggest events of the week was the Nvidia (NVDA) earnings report. They absolutely crushed earnings and spiked close to 30 handles on the report. This was met with some pretty vicious selling and the stock gave back its entire earnings gap and then some in the following two sessions, but still ended the week up barely 6%.
This week looks like it could provide some equally exciting opportunities, here are 5 things to watch in the markets this week.
Earnings
Earnings are still in the news this week and should still be watched with a keen eye. This week we have several tech companies in the spotlight in addition to several consumer staples names. On the tech side of things, we have Salesforce (CRM), Broadcom (AVGO), and VMware (VMW) reporting on Wednesday and Thursday. These all focus mostly on business-to-business interfacing, so watching their guidance could provide some valuable insight into the next 3 to 12 months of business growth expectations. On the consumer side, we have JM Smucker (SJM) on Tuesday, Hormel Foods (HRL), and Campbell's Soup (CPB) reporting on Thursday. These are some of the larger names in the food industry, so watching their forward guidance could provide some insight into expected purchasing power in the next several months.
JOLTS
Tuesday at 10 am the JOLTS Job openings report is released. While this report does not always produce volatility upon release, it is something that should be watched for clues about future economic activity. Powell and the Fed talk a lot about the strength of the economy and the jobs market in spite of raising rates, if we start to see the openings decrease it could be a signal to the Fed that the market is starting to turn a bit. This could produce a change in the stance of the Fed on whether to continue rate hikes or to pause or start to ease rates.
Prelim GDP
Preliminary GDP numbers are due out Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. This release usually causes some market volatility, but short of a crazy print it's most likely that the volatility will be subsided by market open. With all the recession talk going around, keeping an eye on the preliminary GDP results could provide a solid indicator of the final quarterly GDP released next month and if we are in fact heading towards an economic downturn.
Crude Oil Inventories
Crude Oil inventories are due out at 10:30 on Wednesday. This could have an outsized effect on the market, especially the energy sector, given all of the overseas cuts that have been discussed lately by OPEC and other oil-producing countries. Continually drawing from domestic firms means that we will need to import more and more oil into the US. This could have a direct impact on the prices of everything as fuel costs continue to rise as supply falls. This is just something good to watch to help build out a longer-term theme for the markets and consumer prices.
Non-Farm Payrolls
It is that time of the month again, time for NFP. Similar to the JOLTs release earlier in the week, watching how NFP comes out could have a strong impact on the market. The last two reports have been revised down in the following weeks and if this one follows suit could provide some sell pressure in the general market. If however, this comes in as a beat it's possible the market rallies on a strong jobs report.
Best of luck this week and don’t forget to check out my daily options article.
On the date of publication, Gavin McMaster did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
