Apple (AAPL) was one of the largest headlines last week, with China announcing that it planned to cut back usage of the products in government locations. That was followed up with Jim Cramer saying that it was a great company to hold and not trade, so sadly that could be a bellwether for some hard times ahead for Apple.
Additionally, there was some news about the Nvidia (NVDA) earnings and some questions about the legitimacy of the mysterious client that pushed their earnings over the edge. Throw in some news release drama and we ended with the S&P 500 ($SPX) (SPY) down a little over 1% on the week.
This week is fairly quiet news-wise at the beginning of the week, but towards the end, it really picks up. Plus we have some geopolitical news to watch out for and still have earnings. Here are 5 things to watch in the markets this week.
Earnings
Earnings are really winding down now. This upcoming week there are really only a few notable names to keep an eye out on. First up on Monday is Oracle (ORCL). A huge business-to-business name, it could provide some insight into the software spending of other companies over the next months and years. Wednesday before the open Craker Barrel (CBRL) releases its earnings. This could provide some insight into what the thank the upcoming quarters will have in store in terms of restaurant patronage. Finally, on Thursday Adobe (ADBE) releases earnings. With an increasing shift to subscription-based products and the rise of a few different AI-inspired tools, ADBE could be a solid one to watch post-earning.
CPI
CPI is out Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.Eastern time. With all of the issues with energy lately, the forecast for this month-over-month change is +0.6% which is significantly larger than the previous 6 forecasts. It’s possible it's just a high estimate to try and celebrate a lower actual number, it's also possible with higher energy costs we are seeing inflation creep back into prices. If there is a match or beat to the CPI numbers, it's possible we see some sell as rate hikes would not be off the table. If we miss though, we could see a rally on hopes that rates are soon coming down.
PPI
Following up on some additional inflation news on Thursday is the PPI. Where CPI is the number retail sees, PPI is the number that producers charge the stores. These numbers often move in unison as prices increase, and so do costs associated with the good. Similar to CPI, if we match or beat the estimate it's possible the market starts to head south, if we miss though we could see a continued rally.
Core Retail Sales
Rounding out the consumer data due this week is Core Retail sales out Thursday at 8:30. As discussed in the past, this is the total value of sales excluding automobiles, so it can be skewed by higher prices, however, it is forecasted to have dropped significantly from the previous month's number. This could be a solid indicator of whether or not the economy is slowing down.
Energy
On a longer time horizon, energy looks to be coming back into the conversation. Russia and the Saudis have recently made a statement that they plan to extend cuts in production at least through the fall. This is mixed with the current US administration saying that they plan on revoking all the remaining oil and gas leases above the Arctic Circle. Combined it could put a lot more strain on both middle and low-income families as well as on producers and logistics companies who will be forced to raise prices in lockstep with fuel costs.
Best of luck this week and don’t forget to check out my daily options article.
On the date of publication, Gavin McMaster did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
