LEXINGTON, Ky. — It was a disappointing finish to Kentucky's 2021-22 basketball season, the Wildcats' national championship hopes ending just as their NCAA Tournament was getting started with a shocking loss to Saint Peter's in the first round.
There appears to be plenty of hope for UK's next run, however.
Even before Kansas defeated North Carolina in the national championship game Monday night, early rankings of the top teams for the 2022-23 college basketball season were starting to trickle out. All of those lists place the Cats near the top.
The Sporting News' Mike DeCourcy has the Wildcats in the No. 1 spot, though he makes it clear that ranking will change if national player of the year Oscar Tshiebwe doesn't return to the team for next season.
UCLA, Kansas, Michigan and North Carolina complete DeCourcy's top five, with Arkansas as the next-best Southeastern Conference team at No. 6 nationally.
College basketball reporter Jon Rothstein also has Kentucky as the No. 1 team for the 2022-23 season, though he has a projected starting lineup for UK that features both Tshiebwe and former No. 1 recruit Shaedon Sharpe, who is projected as a top-10 NBA draft pick this year. That's a rosy projection for the Wildcats' offseason. UK is followed on Rothstein's list by UCLA, North Carolina, Houston and SEC foe Arkansas.
Over at The Athletic, it's UCLA that's No. 1 on Seth Davis' list. Those rankings have Kentucky in the No. 2 spot, projecting that Tshiebwe will return and Sharpe will go pro. Arkansas is No. 3 nationally, according to Davis' list.
It's actually the Razorbacks that lead the ESPN "Way-Too-Early" rankings, entering next season with a projected starting lineup that features three McDonald's All-Americans. That list has Kentucky at No. 7 nationally even while projecting that the Cats will lose both Tshiebwe and Sharpe.
The 247Sports rankings also featured Arkansas in the No. 1 spot, with Kentucky right behind the Hogs at No. 2 nationally. That list included a projection that Tshiebwe would return to the Wildcats, while Sharpe would move on to the NBA draft. UCLA, Houston and Gonzaga finish out the top five.
Sports Illustrated also has Arkansas at No. 1 and Kentucky at No. 2, with a prediction that Tshiebwe would be back for another run with the Wildcats. Houston, Kansas and Gonzaga are next on the SI list.
Longtime college basketball analyst Jeff Goodman also has Arkansas at No. 1 in his rankings for Stadium, a list that includes Kentucky at No. 8 (the lowest ranking of any of the national sites) with Tshiebwe's status noted as "up in the air" and the expectation that Sharpe will enter and stay in the NBA draft.
USA Today gives its top spot to Duke, which will feature the nation's No. 1 recruiting class in the first season under new head coach Jon Scheyer. Kentucky is ranked No. 4 by USA Today, yet another prediction that is contingent on Tshiebwe returning to Lexington for the 2022-23 season. "He'll surely strike gold in the transfer portal, too," that write-up says of UK Coach John Calipari.
CBS Sports has Kentucky at No. 3 nationally, behind only UCLA and North Carolina. CBS national writer Gary Parrish says that his ranking for UK is based on the thought that Tshiebwe will return to the Wildcats next season. He adds that the Cats could move to No. 1 on his list if Sharpe also decides to play college basketball.
Longtime Pac-12 reporter Jon Wilner — writing for the San Jose Mercury News — has Kentucky ranked No. 2 behind North Carolina, but that spot is also highly contingent on Tshiebwe's return. Without him, Wilner says UK wouldn't be in his top 10 for next season. Michigan, Houston and Duke round out the top five on that list, with Arkansas the next best SEC team at No. 7 nationally.
The Caesars sportsbook updated early Tuesday morning with Kentucky tied for the third-shortest odds to win the national title. UK and Arizona were both at 15-1 on that sheet, with Kansas the 2023 favorite at 10-1 and Gonzaga next at 12-1. Arkansas is at 16-1 there. Caesars also included Louisville at 200-1 odds to win the championship in its first season under new head coach Kenny Payne.
The DraftKings sportsbook posted Duke as the early 2023 favorite at 9-1 just minutes after Monday night's title game ended. UNC was next at 11-1, with Kentucky and Kansas after that at 12-1.
Kentucky basketball roster outlook
Obviously, it's incredibly early to put too much stock into these 2022-23 rankings, especially with the considerable roster churn expected to take place within many of the programs at the top of these lists.
Kentucky is one of the best examples of a roster that remains almost completely up in the air for next season.
Kellan Grady and Davion Mintz, who are out of college eligibility, will both move on.
UK will bring in five-star recruits Chris Livingston and Cason Wallace — both top-10 national prospects — and early indications have been that former McDonald's All-American forward Daimion Collins will return for a second season. Sharp-shooting guard CJ Fredrick — a two-year starter at Iowa — is expected to be fully healthy and return for next season.
Past that, there are still a lot of question marks.
So far, only Dontaie Allen and Keion Brooks have made any kind of public announcement. Allen is entering the transfer portal, and Brooks — a starter this past season — will enter his name in the NBA draft with the opening to return for another year of college basketball.
TyTy Washington is expected to enter the draft for good sometime soon. Sharpe and Tshiebwe still haven't announced plans. Starting point guard Sahvir Wheeler has been mum on his future. And Jacob Toppin, Bryce Hopkins and Lance Ware have also yet to make any public declarations about what they'll do next season.
With Kentucky's roster far from settled and pretty much all of those players who have yet to reveal their plans the subject of professional or transfer buzz, it'll probably be a while before the Cats' spot in these early 2022-23 rankings gets solidified.
The withdrawal date for the NBA draft is expected to be June 1. Between now and then, UK will add some players from the transfer portal and likely lose some contributors from this past season's team as its future roster rounds into form.
Whatever happens, it's clear that expectations will once again be high going into next season.
