Peter Dutton’s leadership is safe for now as the Liberals have nowhere else to turn, party insiders claim, despite their third major loss since the federal election.
With the loss of the outer east Melbourne electorate of Aston in Saturday’s byelection, the Liberal party now holds just 14 of 79 federal urban seats. It has led to renewed calls for a major overhaul of strategy and raised questions about Dutton’s leadership.
Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull said on Sunday the party’s future rested on its ability to change course, and leader.
Aston was lost after a 6% swing on the current count, and the seat changed hands for the first time since 1990. It made history as the first government win of an opposition seat in a byelection for more than a century.
“The problem is that they have to move back to the centre,” Turnbull said.
“It is hard to see how that can be done with a leader who is so indelibly associated with the right of the party and whose support base in the Murdoch media is calling for the Liberal party to move further to the right.”
In 2018, Turnbull faced attack from the Liberal’s right flank after a 3.66% swing against the LNP candidate in the then-Labor held seat of Longman. It eventually led to his leadership being challenged and Scott Morrison’s prime ministership.
But there is no appetite within the party room to change leaders immediately. Some are pointing to the end of the year, after the voice referendum, as Dutton’s deadline to turn the party’s fortunes around.
“Who would we even turn to?” one backbencher said. “There is no one even close to having the support. Dutton was chosen as the best of who was left [after the 2022 election] and that hasn’t changed in the 10 months since.”
In March, Dutton said he was happy for the byelection to be considered a test of leadership for himself and Anthony Albanese.
After Labor pulled off a historic victory in what was considered a safe Liberal seat, the party adds another defeat to the Victorian election and the New South Wales election in the 10 months since it lost federal government.
Some in the Liberal party feel the organisation is hostage to its conservative Queensland wing.
“We are in a situation where the Queenslanders feel they can call the shots because Queensland’s blue line has held,” one Liberal member said.
“But … we lost in Queensland too. We can’t win without the cities and we don’t seem to be doing anything to win those voters back.”
The Liberal party now only holds six seats in Sydney, three in Victoria, one each in Perth and Adelaide, and three in Brisbane.
Party insiders believe Dutton is continuing the outer-urban-inner-regional strategy Morrison had pushed as the party’s new heartland, but moderates worry the direction gives younger generations nothing to vote for.
“We stand for aspiration. We stand for entrepreneurialism, so small businesses; we stand for national security, obviously, and we always stand for cleaning up a Labor mess when we get back into government so that people can make their own choices,” Dutton said on Sunday.
“We make decisions that [mean], for example, people can keep more of their own money, so they can support their own family. And there is a lot that we can put together by way of policy before the next election, but we are not announcing that at the 10-month mark.”
Dutton and supporters blamed the Victorian division for the loss, which has for years been embroiled in factional infighting between socially progressive and more conservative members.
On Sunday, Dutton said people in outer suburban areas were “very worked up” about trans rights.
Labor strategist Kos Samaras said the Liberals had alienated more progressive voters in the southern states by trying to pander to its more conservative Queensland base.
“Eastern Melbourne was the Liberals’ stronghold, their demographic heart. One seat after another is being swept into the political dustbin,” he posted on Twitter.
“Dutton made references to what ‘outer suburban’ parents think about trans issues. He has no idea what they think. His party does not represent them.”
One Victorian Liberal state MP said the Aston result vindicated the attempt by Victorian Liberal leader John Pesutto to expel Liberal MP Moira Deeming after she attended an anti-trans rally.
“People with very fringe, extreme views are turning people off from our party,” they said.
Another state Liberal MP said: “They [voters] think we’re a brunch of racist, anti-gay and anti-abortion nutters.”
However, a third state MP said any suggestion the Deeming saga led voters to abandon the party was “ridiculous”.
“That was a catastrophic result but it’s got fucking nothing to do with us. From all accounts from those on the hustings yesterday, no one knew who Moira Deeming was or, quite frankly, cared,” they said.
Pesutto denied state issues had affected the byelection.
“In essence, it was about cost of living. It was a federal byelection with some local issues in it,” Pesutto told reporters on Sunday.
“None of the issues surrounding the Victorian parliamentary [Liberal party] were being raised with people on pre-poll or yesterday.”
Pesutto said he was keenly aware that the Liberal party “needs to reform if it’s to be a winning force again”.
“We have to take actions that demonstrate to the people that we are committed to being that inclusive, welcoming and engaging party,” he said.
