Peter Dutton has stepped back from his earlier prediction that Australia would join a conflict to defend Taiwan, saying the government would decide “at that time as to what was in our country’s best interests”.
The defence minister also said the strength of the international response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had “significantly wounded” the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and hoped this would prompt China’s Xi Jinping to reassess the costs of aggressive action against Taiwan.
Dutton said Australian-supplied lethal military equipment had arrived in Ukraine. While he did not disclose “how we’ve got it into the hands of the Ukrainians” he signalled that Australia stood ready to provide further help.
In an interview with the ABC’s Insiders program on Sunday, Dutton hit out at what he called an “unholy alliance” between Russia and China – the agreement Putin and Xi unveiled a month ago to formalise a “no limits” partnership.
While Dutton said it was important for Australia to “do whatever we can to deter China from acts of aggression in our region”, he did not repeat his previous formulation about what Australia would do in the event of a military conflict over Taiwan.
In November Dutton was accused of straying from longstanding bipartisan policy when he told the Australian newspaper that it “would be inconceivable that we wouldn’t support the US in an action if the US chose to take that action”.
The US maintains “strategic ambiguity” about whether it would come to the defence of Taiwan, the democratically governed island of 24 million people that Beijing claims as its breakaway province.
In November, Dutton denied he was pre-committing Australia to war, but added: “Maybe there are circumstances where we wouldn’t take up that option, (but) I can’t conceive of those circumstances.”
On Sunday, however, Dutton appeared to be more cautious with his language about Taiwan. “We would take interest in any of those conflicts or the threat of conflict that serve our national interest,” he said.
Pressed specifically on whether he still believed it would be inconceivable that Australia would not support the US in an action over Taiwan, Dutton said: “If it’s in our national interest to protect our homeland and our allies, then we would take that decision at that time as to what was in our country’s best interests.”
Dutton said Russia was incurring “reputational risk” at the current time and Xi “would have to question whether or not he would want that similar response”.
Morrison speaks with Zelenskiy
The Australian prime minister, Scott Morrison, spoke by phone with Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, on Saturday night. Morrison said he had “praised Ukraine’s courage against Russia’s aggression” and the pair had “discussed ways we could assist further”.
Zelenskiy tweeted that he had briefed Morrison on “the course of war” and “risks to people and the environment due to the threat to Ukrainian nuclear and chemical facilities”.
Dutton said Ukrainians had “put up a magnificent resistance so far, but there is a sense inevitability when you look at the strength and sheer numbers and also the propensity for Putin to use chemical weapons or other weapons which would be used in a residential area”.
In the ABC interview, Dutton repeatedly referred to Ukraine by the incorrect name “the Ukraine”. The 1991 constitution refers to Ukraine as a sovereign state, and Australia’s ambassador has previously cautioned against the defunct phrasing:
With increased focus & attention being paid to Ukraine (NOT the Ukraine), an opportune time to remind all outlets that it’s #KyivNotKiev.@CNN made the change recently, so a good model for @7NewsAustralia to follow.
— Bruce Edwards 🇦🇺🇺🇦🇲🇩 (@AUinUA) January 23, 2022
@kyivnotkievch https://t.co/52g1hyRApf
Dutton said it was clear that Putin “has a view of erasing history and of conquering those countries around him and bringing back a re-unified USSR”.
“That is the view out of the Ukraine, the view out of the intelligence analysts and that is what concerns Nato and the world as well,” he said.
“Does it stop at the Ukraine or does it provide them with a greater foothold in Europe and a launching pad then into another country?
“We need to be very clear about his intention, his capability. I think he has been significantly wounded out of this, both domestically and in terms of the international reputation that people have of Russia, and I think there will be internal discussions about the viability of his leadership going forward.”
Dutton backed Nato’s reluctance to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine, saying such a move would only help “if it didn’t lead to a nuclear conflict”.
Putin warned on Saturday that such a no-fly zone “would bring catastrophic results not only to Europe but to the whole world”.
The Russian leader also leader likened the measures designed to cripple his country’s economy as “akin to an act of war”. Putin said Ukraine’s leaders must “understand that if they continue doing what they are doing, they risk the future of Ukrainian statehood”.
The Labor party’s defence spokesperson, Brendan O’Connor, said the Australian government had “done the right thing” in condemning Russia’s invasion, ratcheting up sanctions and providing lethal and non-lethal aid to Ukraine.
“Insofar as what we may do if elected, we will continue to do what the international community are doing in working together to put as much pressure on President Putin as possible in order to see the end of this terrible conflict,” O’Connor told Sky News.
Dutton said Australia’s discussions with the US and the UK on nuclear-powered submarines were “incredibly productive”.
While Morrison has previously said the first submarine under the Aukus deal was expected to be in the water by about 2040, Dutton argued Australia would “acquire the capability much sooner than that” although he did not nominate a new date.
“We will have an announcement within the next couple of months about which boat we are going with, what we can do in the interim,” Dutton said.
The comments sparked speculation the Coalition could announce a decision on the submarine design before the election, due in May, but Guardian Australia has been told the government is not planning to do so, given the caretaker mode is likely to begin next month.
