In late July, during a typically blusterous State of the Nation address, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte took a detour from his prepared remarks and addressed the country’s ongoing dispute with China over various landmarks in the South China Sea. There was nothing to be done, he observed. “China is claiming it. We are claiming it. China has the arms. We do not have it. So it’s as simple as that. They are in possession of the property.” It seemed almost as if Duterte, never modest, was ready to pat himself on the back for his own national self-abnegation. The Chinese government did. After all, though it may have gone against Philippine interests, Duterte has played a significant role in ensuring China maintained possession of the disputed areas.
This turn of events could not have been predicted by the casual observer of Asian politics upon Duterte’s election, four years ago. During his election campaign, Duterte boasted he would stand up to China by personally riding a water scooter to one of the disputed locations and planting the Philippine flag. As spring turned to summer in 2016, many regional observers expected a confrontation in the South China Sea. China had gone on a building spree in the South China Sea, converting rocks into airstrips and reefs into solid land. The Permanent Court of Arbitration was concluding a multiyear investigation into a 2013 case brought by the Philippines regarding Chinese claims in the South China Sea. The administration of then U.S. President Barack Obama cajoled allies across the world to speak out against China’s expansionist claims and defend the Permanent Court of Arbitration against Chinese criticism. Despite Chinese pressure to toe the line, far more countries publicly supported the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s ruling than opposed it.
