Dutch voters have kicked off a four-day election marathon across the 27 nations of the European Union – providing an early litmus test of how far to the right the next EU parliament might shift.
The European Union's 370 million voters have been called to the polls at a time of deep geopolitical uncertainty for the bloc – two and a half years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The bulk of countries – including powerhouses France and Germany – will vote on Sunday, but the opening contest in The Netherlands this Thursday will offer a glimpse of the strength of the far-right, whose predicted surge is the election's top issue.
The Freedom Party (PVV) of far-right politician Geert Wilders – the surprise winner of national elections last November – is also projected to top the EU polls.
Though it has dropped its pledge of a "Nexit" referendum on leaving the bloc, the PVV's manifesto remains fiercely eurosceptic.
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Emerging political groups
The Netherlands is just one of a long list of countries where nationalist, far-right and other eurosceptic forces are expected to come out on top in the EU vote.
Polls suggest the hard-right could grab around a quarter of the new parliament's 720 seats – significant enough to sway EU policy.
The results could also impact Brussels' approach to climate change, relations with the United States and China, support for Ukraine, EU enlargement, and adapting to AI innovations.
Once the dust settles, the strength of emerging political groups will influence EU leaders' decisions who takes the bloc's top institutional jobs, including at the European Commission.
Current European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is running for a second term and seen as the frontrunner, though diplomats caution that is not a given.
'Troubled times'
If tapped by member states, von der Leyen will still need to lock-in support from parliament – or it will be back to square one and potentially months before the EU's next boss is known.
According to Sebastien Maillard from French think tank the Jacques Delors Institute: "These are troubled times, and there's a need to move fast," warning of the risks of a leadership vacuum.
"What's at stake is Europe's ability to embody democracy, to find compromises, to stay sufficiently united... faced with [Russia's Vladimir] Putin, faced with China, faced with the future American president," said Maillard.
The prospect of Donald Trump triumphing in November US elections has focused European minds – but also given a boost to parties aligned with Trump's nationalist tenets.
Marine Le Pen's National Rally in France is predicted to come out on top, as is Italian premier Giorgia Meloni's post-fascist Brothers of Italy, and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's far-right Fidesz party.
In Germany, the extreme-right AfD is polling second – after the opposition conservatives – while in Austria, the far-right Freedom Party appears to be on track for victory.
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Swing in parliament
In a several of countries, voters see European elections chiefly as a way to send messages to their own government – over everything from the cost of living, to law and order concerns, or the popularity of a national leader.
Turnout has historically been low – but the last polls in 2019 saw a significant uptick, to just under 51 percent.
This time – according to polling data compiled by Politico – Von der Leyen's conservative European People's Party is on track to get the most parliamentary seats of 172.
That accounts for less than a quarter of the chamber, meaning a coalition will be needed to pass legislation.
Most political analysts believe the EPP's existing alliance with the leftist Socialists and Democrat – predicted to win 143 seats – and the centrist Renew Group, looking to garner 75, will carry over.
But there is speculation the EPP might instead look to work with far-right lawmakers, implying a much more right-wing agenda for Europe.
Von der Leyen has been courting Meloni, whose support she will need if she is to clinch a second commission term.
