Chelsea are in the same position they have been for years on end as they look to prepare for the 2023/24 season. Not only are they under new management with cautious optimism building that Mauricio Pochettino will be able to bring back a sense of feeling and connection to a broken club, but they are seeking a new striker.
Since 2016 they have spent £433.9million ($557million) on players that were signed as or would go on to play as centre forwards. Christopher Nkunku and Nicolas Jackson have been included in that figure having joined this summer but are yet to make their debuts. They are the next challengers.
In the years of Romelu Lukaku, Alvaro Morata and Timo Werner, the three biggest attempts to solve an inevitable and unavoidable problem, it has been Tammy Abraham that has brought the best return. Since Diego Costa in 2016/17 nobody has scored more than 20 league goals in a season.
Abraham's record of 15 in 2018/19, his first senior year at the club, is unmatched in the four years since. He was sold for less than half of what Lukaku cost and scored more goals. He also didn't do an unapproved interview months after joining, effectively burning down all bridges and relationships with the club.
The easy conclusion to reach at this point is that Chelsea have become a graveyard for attackers. It does look that way. Very few of their signings in recent years have truly paid off and academy players shifted out of position or given les game time and opportunity have often delivered better output.
Pochettino doesn't have that to rely on yet. Armando Broja is recovering from a long-term injury and entered the summer as the only first team striker following Kai Havertz's eventual sale. Lukaku is attempting to do all he can to not return to the club ahead of pre-season and it seems that all parties would benefit without his presence at the training ground.
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Nkunku, as mentioned, is fresh but also not a standalone focal point of the normal Pochettino-style. Jackson is raw and exciting but would be a risk to enter the season with a first choice. So, for the next chapter in a long series, Chelsea are on the hunt for someone to become a main source of goals.
Their list of targets is plentiful but many are unrealistic. Victor Osimhen's price tag puts him out of sight. The Daniel Levy factor all but eliminates any slim chances of getting Harry Kane across London. Lautaro Martinez is a strong contender but Inter aren't looking to sell and may not be the biggest fans of Chelsea come the end of the Lukaku, Kalidou Koulibaly and Andre Onana talks.
When it comes to elite strikers with a proven record across Europe in the desired age range and that won't hold the Blues to ransom, there are understandably few options. One that has remained a consistent marker on the radar has been Juventus' Dusan Vlahovic.
The Serbian forward was courted after by Chelsea when he was at Fiorentina, impressing as a teenager. His move to Juventus in January 2022 left Arsenal and Chelsea cold footed and surprised. For £69.7million ($89.5million) he was a standout transfer.
Aged 21, Vlahovic quickly rose to prominence in Italy after bagging 21 goals in 2020/21. That was followed up by 17 in 21 games the next year before the Old Lady took the financial hit and splashed out on him mid-season to beat the competition. Chelsea, who were struggling in the initial post-Lukaku interview stage at this point, picked the wrong striker it seems.
However, Vlahovic has failed to hit the heights expected of him in Turin. 23 goals in 63 games with six assists are numbers enough to be one of Chelsea's best in recent years but given the scoring exploits of Lukaku himself, there are higher standards when considering the jump needed into the Premier League.
He only managed 10 league goals last year and is now widely expected to leave after simply failing to make it work. His strong international record and previous history of goalscoring means there is still optimism amongst buying clubs that he can rediscover his elite form.
Valued at £51million ($65.4million) but CIES football observatory, the price tag Juventus are reportedly asking for, £68million ($87million), is not lightyears away from what statistical metrics spit out. Given Chelsea's mass sales so far and the clear demand to sign a striker, it is not a price that is unpayable, unlike Osimhen's £130million ($166million) overhanging valuation.
However, what it does show is that there are relatively affordable players on the market, but they come with risk. Would Chelsea rather have paid Juventus' price the Vlahovic of January 2022 or get a discount on a player with less confident and less goals?
It's a frankly unanswerable question but one that is born from not signing him earlier. Very few spotted his talents as an 18-year-old at Partizan in Serbia. Valued at below £1million ($1.28million) by Transfermarkt and moving for just £2.7million ($3.4million) to Italy, 24-months on and Fiorentina had the big prospect of world football strikers.
Chelsea missed out, that's okay, and they have watched his price boom ever since. Within four years in Serie A he valued at 70 times more than he had been upon arriving and transferred for more than 35 times his initial price. Being an elite club feels a lot like this, taking players developed elsewhere because actually using a young prospect for years is more risky than the trusted Gods of the professional game.
When that turns into being Lukaku and a loan followed by frantic sales processes, maybe the process has gone wrong and the answer is to turn back to those that are both young enough to thrive, old enough to be experienced and in the middle enough to offer something different.
That's what Vlahovic is now to Chelsea. A player they need but might not be sure about, for a price much bigger than it once would have been if Lukaku wasn't around.
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