The drought which has affected the UK since this summer's exceptionally hot and dry weather could last until next year, it has been warned. The National Drought Group - made of up of Environment Agency bosses, the Government and water companies as well as farming and environmental groups - made the forecast following a meeting today (Friday, October 14).
At the meeting, members discussed how a dry autumn and winter could have an impact in 2023. Water companies have suggested impending drought or drought conditions will remain beyond spring in some areas – notably in parts of the South West, South East, East and Yorkshire and East Midlands - if rainfall is below average.
The latest monthly national water situation report, published by the Environment Agency, shows that for the first time in six months, September rainfall across England as a whole reached average levels. However, due to soils remaining drier than usual, this has made little or no difference to reservoir levels and most of the country remains in drought.
River and groundwater levels remain low and reservoir stocks continue to decrease at all the reservoirs the Environment Agency reports on. Essential water supplies are said to remain safe, but recent rainfall has not changed the underlying drought situation caused by the prolonged dry weather of the last several months.
The meeting heard that water companies expect resources to recover to "normal or recovering conditions" by spring if there is average rainfall - but several companies forecast that some supply areas will still remain in drought or impending drought conditions. Meanwhile the lack of moisture in soils led to "significant agricultural impacts and reduced water availability" for farmers this year, while winter refill of farm storage reservoirs may be constrained if there is below average rainfall this winter.
The National Drought Group was told that, even with typical rainfall over winter, there could still be environmental impacts in 2023 due to a lag in the environmental response to the dry weather. These include impacts on fish populations, and a higher number of environmental incidents such as fish rescues being needed as a result of lower river flows.
The group discussed action that will be needed over the next six months to sustain essential supplies in preparation for spring and summer next year - this will include water companies implementing their drought plans and accelerating infrastructure plans to improve resilience. The Environment Agency will manage abstraction licences - where water is taken from sources like rivers and groundwater - decide on drought permits and operate its water transfer schemes, which involve sending supplies from one part of the country to another.
Sir James Bevan, the chief executive of the Environment Agency who chairs the National Drought Group, said: “Our lives, livelihoods and nature all depend on one thing - water. Climate change and population growth mean we need to take action now to ensure we have enough over the coming decades to manage everyday supplies, and more intense drought events.
“We have a plan to do that and delivering it will require all of us to work together – government, water companies, regulators, farmers and businesses, and each of us as individuals. The Environment Agency is determined to do its part.”
Water Minister Trudy Harrison said: “The record-breaking temperatures, unusually low rainfall and widespread drought the country has experienced this year are a reminder that we need to adapt to ensure our water supplies are resilient and secure in future. The work of the National Drought Group is ensuring that we can manage down the risk of continuing drought conditions, so that the impact is less severe for all of us.”
