Learner drivers face another two years of the existing testing backlog before more consistent slots become available, new analysis has found.
Scots learners have been plagued with delays to tests and even lessons due to the Covid pandemic.
A recent decline in driving instructors and a baby boom around 17 years ago has meant that the volume of people requiring a test has reached boiling point.
Learners have either taken their test in a part of the country they’re not familiar with or have just held out for more slots to become available.
Insurance firm Marmalade has estimated that the current backlog will continue to impact drivers until January 1, 2024.
The company analysed data obtained through a Freedom of Information request showing all tests booked for 2022, as well as gross demand for tests through the DVSA across all of 2021.
Experts also looked at Office for National Statistics driving test data, which allowed them to establish an average capacity for practical testing across the UK.
It is predicted that demand for tests in 2022 and 2023 will soar to more than three million across the country, which is far higher than what the DVSA is estimated to accommodate in its monthly testing.
This has left on average more than 209,000 learners battling for test slots each month or having to wait.
Demand for tests is expected to peak in May, where rollover from previously months mean that around 520,000 learners will possibly pile up making it impossible for hundreds of thousands to get a test book.
Capacity for tests only becomes available from January 2024 onwards, the firm have said.
It has been claimed that the delays in getting a test will cost learner drivers on average an additional £250 each - which adds up to around £1.25bn for every learner combined until January 2024.
Crispin Moger, CEO of Marmalade, said: “Learner drivers have been consistently impacted as a result of the pandemic and the 2020/21 lockdowns.
"We have seen the biggest ever backlog in access to driving tests and for many this will have set them back quite considerably in their journey to getting on the road or perhaps even ended it for some.
“The DVSA has said it is offering overtime to examiners and rolling out a recruitment drive to increase capacity, while also closing down test centres across the UK as well as we’ve seen recently in the likes of Manchester and Shropshire.
“Our recent survey of learner drivers across the UK found that 77 per cent of learners cite the extra cost of more lessons as the biggest frustration in the delay for tests, followed by delaying independence and freedom (68 per cent) among others.
"With this in mind we’d encourage learners to forward plan as much as they can, also considering private practice with a family member to supplement lessons to help ensure they are ready when the big day comes.”
DVSA’s Chief Executive, Loveday Ryder said: “We are doing all we can to provide as many tests as possible so we can get our services back to normal. I know learners will be keen to take their test now, but it is important that they are properly prepared for their test and don’t take it before they are ready.
“With more than half of candidates failing, and demand currently extremely high for tests, learners should only take their test only when they are confident they can pass. This will help them to avoid a lengthy wait for a retest and help us by not adding to the driving test waiting list.”
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