The NFL draft is an inexact science, and in some cases we’ll perform the equivalent of gnat surgery in analyzing a team’s decision-making process, the kind of hair-splitting stuff that makes someone long for the excitement of a physics textbook.
But there are certain situations in which it’s proper to applaud the continual acquisition of fun and shiny things. Things that we’re not sure can even exist together. Things that we’re not sure are a sound economical value given where they were taken. Things that may not ultimately lead to the winning of games. That’s because shiny things are fun.
This is exactly why the Falcons are getting my highest possible grade. Something beyond an A-plus. Whatever grade you would give a day at the beach, a cooler full of your preferred beverages, the music of your choosing and a visit from Rob Gronkowski with a Slip ’N Slide. Simply put: Selecting Bijan Robinson, a running back, at No. 8 and throwing him into an offensive blender with Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Tyler Allgeier is going to be fun as hell. Beyond that? It’s anyone’s guess.
Let’s get some gnat surgery out of the way before getting back to the party. This year, two running backs, Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs went in the top 13 after the position was declared analytically dead. As I have written multiple times, I think teams should get a reprieve from that thought process as long as most defenses are going to continually play umbrella-style Cover 2 defenses, like the one popularized by Vic Fangio. One of the few things that consistently works against opposing coordinators who place a hard cap on big passing plays is checking the ball down to a sledgehammer of a running back over and over again.
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Robinson, who runs with the force of every demolition tool ever created, and also gained more than 10 yards per reception last year at Texas, is one of those players. This is why the Giants placed the franchise tag on Saquon Barkley. This is why the 49ers traded a massive chunk of capital for Christian McCaffrey. This is why the Packers spent a second-round pick on AJ Dillon instead of pacifying their formerly oppressed quarterback with a wide receiver.
We can ask the boring questions, like, Who will be handing Robinson the ball and distributing to all of these talented pass catchers? And for that, I would ask that you stop being such a buzzkill. In my mind, Robinson will force defenses to stagger to their kneepads, and then Allgeier will slide in on third-and-short to deliver a knockout punch. Let’s enjoy the Madden game playing in our collective heads for just a second longer.
In all seriousness, the Desmond Ridder question is a legitimate one, but how much easier does one of the best on-paper running games make the development of a third-round pick QB? And how much better is it to succeed with a third-round pick at quarterback than to sacrifice all of your capital to move up for a rookie who may not be that much better?
The Falcons looked at Lamar Jackson theoretically coming available this offseason, and they saw Will Levis and Hendon Hooker waving at them while they were on the clock at No. 8. They looked at a fair amount of draft equity burning a hole in their pocket—certainly enough to have moved up to the No. 1 pick if they chose to do so—and said No thanks, we’re getting weird. In an NFL where team-building strategies can rapidly homogenize, it’s a kind of siren song for those of us who long to flick on a football game Sunday and see something truly jaw dropping.
The Falcons managed to capture a bit of that sentiment a year ago with Marcus Mariota under center and Pitts missing a third of the season with an MCL tear. Now? Week 1 will be appointment viewing. The Falcons weren’t winning the Super Bowl in 2023, anyway. Throwing a party is the next best (shiny) thing.
