Dow Jones futures fell slightly early Thursday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. Initial jobless claims and service-sector data on tap, with the September jobs report due early Friday.
The stock market rally erased a modest loss to close higher, albeit barely, amid continued Mideast tensions. The Nasdaq found support at its 21-day moving average for a second straight session.
Tesla fell Wednesday after deliveries failed to meet whisper numbers, but TSLA stock rebounded off key support.
Nvidia rose after testing support, along with fellow AI chip giants Taiwan Semiconductor and Broadcom. Nvidia stock rose slightly overnight as CEO Jensen Huang cited "insane" demand for the next-generation Blackwell AI chips.
Nvidia stock is on IBD Leaderboard and the IBD 50. Broadcom stock is on the IBD Big Cap 20.
Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures were 0.2% below fair value. S&P 500 futures lost 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.2%.
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 3.8%. Crude oil prices rose more than 2%.
At 8:30 a.m. ET, the Labor Department will release jobless claims for the week ended Oct. 3, with filings seen rising by 7,000 to 225,000. At 10 a.m., investors get the September ISM services index, set to hold at a slightly positive 51.5. The September jobs report is due Friday.
Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
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Stock Market Rally
The stock market rally had a fairly quiet session and ended little changed.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1% in Wednesday's stock market trading. The S&P 500 index was up less than one point. The Nasdaq composite climbed 0.1%. The small-cap Russell 2000 fell 0.1%.
The Dow Jones and S&P 500 are still just below last week's all-time highs, with the latter finding support just above the 21-day line and the top of a prior consolidation. The Nasdaq is holding the 21-day line, though it's below the 18,000 level. The small-cap Russell 2000 finished just above its 21-day line, not far from its 50-day line.
It's no coincidence that Nvidia, Tesla, and many other stocks are finding support around their 21-day lines as the Nasdaq does.
U.S. crude oil prices edged up 0.4% to $70.10 a barrel, well off intraday highs.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose four basis points to 3.78%.
Time The Market With IBD's ETF Market Strategy
ETFs
Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF advanced 0.15%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF rallied 0.9%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF rebounded 1.4%. Nvidia is the No. one holding in SMH, with Broadcom and Taiwan Semiconductor stock also key members.
Reflecting more-speculative story stocks, ARK Innovation ETF sank 0.7% while ARK Genomics ETF rose a fraction. Tesla stock is still a big holding across Ark Invest's ETFs. Cathie Wood also has built up a sizable Nvidia stock stake.
Tesla Deliveries
Tesla deliveries rose 6% vs. a year earlier to 462,890 in the third quarter, roughly in line with various estimates. But it was below "whisper" numbers of 465,000-470,000 or even higher.
Also, Tesla said it deployed 6.9 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of energy storage in the third quarter, down sharply from Q2's record 9.4 GWh. It was 70% above a year earlier.
Tesla Falls On Deliveries While BYD Soars On Surging Sales
Tesla Stock
Tesla stock sank 3.5% to 249.02. Shares fell as low as 241.50 shortly after the open, but found support just above the 21-day line. TSLA stock has a 271 cup-base buy point. But it could be working on a handle that would lower the entry and let moving averages catch up.
Ideally, Tesla stock would set up a handle heading into the Oct. 10 robotaxi event, which is likely to have a big impact on the share price.
TSLA fell slightly early Thursday.
Nvidia Demand 'Insane'
Nvidia stock rose 1.6% to 118.85, rebounding from its 50-day moving average and reclaiming the 21-day line. Investors could use the Sept. 26 high of 127.67 as a trendline entry, or a handle buy point. The Aug. 26 high of 131.26 also could serve as a buy point.
NVDA stock rose slightly overnight after CEO Huang told CNBC late Wednesday that "Blackwell is in full production, and demand for Blackwell is insane and on-schedule. Everyone wants to be the first to get their hands on it."
Huang has been upbeat about Blackwell production and demand over the past several weeks.
Taiwan Semiconductor stock climbed 2.2% to 175.80. TSM stock reclaimed the 21-day line and a 175.45 cup-with-handle buy point, according to MarketSurge analysis. The Nvidia chipmaker broke out strongly last week, but then tumbled back in the prior three sessions. Taiwan Semi will report Q3 sales next week and Q3 earnings the following week.
Broadcom stock gained 1.9% to 170.66, rebounding from the 21-day line. AVGO stock has a 185.16 consolidation buy point, but is on track to have a handle after Thursday's trading. That would lower the buy point to 180.25.
When To Buy And Sell Stocks In Bull And Bear Markets
What To Do Now
Unless you're an extremely nimble trader, there hasn't been much reason to be buying stocks this week. Investors may have trimmed exposure, especially if recent buys triggered sell rules, but it's largely been a time to wait-and-see.
A good day or two and the key indexes and leading stocks will be looking bullish. A lot of potential handles and pullbacks have been forming. But a bad day could cause real damage in the Nasdaq and Russell 2000, as well as for stocks like Nvidia.
With that in mind, make sure you're watching those emerging setups, while also having your exit strategies in place.
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