Dow Jones futures fell slightly early Wednesday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, with Airbnb, Roblox, Upstart Holdings and Wyndham Hotels & Resorts among the notable after-hours earnings. The stock market rally rebounded Tuesday as Russia said it pulled back some troops from near the Ukraine border.
But Russia's intentions remain unclear, to say the least. President Joe Biden, addressing the country shortly before the market close, said the U.S. hasn't verified any Russian troop pullback, stressing that "invasion remains distinctly possible." He said the U.S. and Russia have agreed to continue negotiations. He stressed that the U.S., NATO and Ukraine are not threats to Russia, but warned Moscow of "immense" costs if it invades Ukraine.
The market rally remains under pressure and below key levels. But if the major indexes continue to rebound, Apple stock, Union Pacific, Albemarle, Fortinet and Nvidia stock could soon flash buy signals. Nvidia and Albemarle report earnings late Wednesday, providing possible catalysts up or down. Apple, Fortinet and UNP stock have already reported.
Key Earnings Tuesday Night
Meanwhile, Devon Energy, Wyndham Hotels, Airbnb, Roblox and CF Industries reported late Tuesday.
DVN stock rose 2% early Wednesday as Devon earnings topped forecasts and crude oil prices climbed overnight. Shares fell 1.6% to 51.42 on Tuesday, still near highs and well extended from buy points.
CF stock declined 2% in extended trade as CF Industries earnings and revenue missed consensus. The fertilizer giant remained bullish longer term. Shares rose 1.1% to 72.22 on Tuesday amid whipsaw action in recent days. Nutrien reports Wednesday night.
UPST stock skyrocketed 22%, but that's off Tuesday night peaks. Upstart crushed earnings views, easily beating revenue targets and providing a bullish outlook. The fintech firm also announced a $400 million UPST stock buyback. Upstart stock rose 4.3% to 109.11, continuing to recover from its Jan. 24 low of 75.15. But UPST stock is still a long way from its Oct. 15 peak of 401.49.
RBLX stock plunged 17% early Wednesday as Roblox earnings and sales came in short. Shares rose 7.3% to 73.30 on Tuesday. Roblox stock has rallied off its Jan. 28 low of 53.63, but is far off its Nov. 22 peak of 141.60.
ABNB stock rose 4% before the open as Airbnb earnings easily beat views while guidance was upbeat. Shares popped overnight. Airbnb stock rose 6.1% to 180.07 on Tuesday. ABNB stock, which reclaimed its 50-day line last week, is working up the right side of a deep base following a failed breakout.
Wyndham earnings topped forecasts. WH stock fell 2% in extended action. Shares climbed 4.55% on Tuesday to 90.29. Wyndham stock has a 91.51 flat-base buy point.
Key Earnings Wednesday Morning
Golden Ocean Group reported better-than-expected earnings early Wednesday and raised its quarterly dividend by 6% to 90 cents a share. GOGL stock edged lower, near record highs. Dry bulk carrier peer Star Bulk Carriers is due late Wednesday.
Shopify slightly beat views before the open. SHOP stock fell solidly in volatile premarket trade.
Hilton Worldwide slightly missed on EPS as revenue doubled. HLT stock edged lower. Choice Hotels topped views with CHH stock little changed. Hyatt reports late Wednesday. All three are near buy points as bookings rebound while Covid cases and restrictions wane.
CF stock, Nvidia and Fortinet are on IBD Leaderboard. FTNT stock is on IBD Long-Term Leaders. Nvidia and FTNT stock are on the IBD 50. WH stock was Tuesday's IBD Stock Of The Day.
The video embedded in this article put Tuesday's market rally rebound in context and analyzed ALB stock, Nvidia and Union Pacific.
Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures lost 0.1% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures fell 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures sank 0.2%.
The 10-year Treasury yield dipped 1 basis point to 2.04%. U.S. crude oil prices rose more than 1% after tumbling Tuesday.
Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
Join IBD experts as they analyze actionable stocks in the stock market rally on IBD Live
Stock Market Rally
The stock market rally bounced at Tuesday's open on positive Russia/Ukraine headlines and held strong gains to close near session highs.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.2% in Tuesday's stock market trading. The S&P 500 index popped 1.6%. The Nasdaq composite jumped 2.5%. The small-cap Russell 2000 leapt 2.8%.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose nearly 5 basis points to 2.05%. U.S. crude oil futures fell 3.6% to $92.07 a barrel, but remain near multiyear highs.
Among the best ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF rallied 2.7%, while the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF edged up 0.25%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF climbed 2.1%. Fortinet stock is an IGV component. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF jumped 5.4%, with NVDA stock a major holding.
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF rose 1.9% and Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF advanced 2.3%. U.S. Global Jets ETF soared 5.7%. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF picked up 2%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF retreated just over 1% and the Financial Select SPDR ETF gained 1.4%. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund closed 1.1% higher.
Reflecting more-speculative story stocks, ARK Innovation ETF rebounded 5.45% and ARK Genomics ETF 4.45%.
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Stocks Near Buy Points
Apple stock rose 2.3% to 172.79, back above its rising 50-day line. On a daily chart, AAPL stock is still working on a possible base and handle. But on a weekly chart, the iPhone giant has a consolidation, with last week's decline creating a handle with a 176.75 buy point. The relative strength line for Apple stock is right at record highs.
Nvidia stock surged 9.2% 264.95 on Tuesday. A move above the fast-falling 50-day line would also clear last week's high and break a trend line, offering an aggressive early entry in NVDA stock. With Nvidia earnings coming up, investors should wait for results or possibly try an earnings options strategy. The RS line for Nvidia stock is well off highs.
Albemarle stock popped 6% to 241.39 on Tuesday. ALB stock is back above its falling 50-day line. Getting above last week's high, or perhaps the Jan. 12 peak of 248, would create an early entry. But with Albemarle earnings due Wednesday night, waiting for results or an options play would be a less-risky way to go.
FTNT stock climbed 3.9% to 322.42 Tuesday, reclaiming its 50-day line. Shares cleared the 50-day line last week, but then pulled back. A move above last week's high of 332.36 could offer an early entry, while still being close to the 50-day. Fortinet stock has an official buy point of 371.87.
UNP stock rose 3.8% to 249.35 on Tuesday, back above the 50-day line. Union Pacific stock has a shallow flat base with a 256.21 buy point, according to MarketSmith analysis. But investors could use a downward-sloping trendline or the Feb. 2 high of 251.80 as an early entry. The RS line for UNP stock has been trending higher, close to a 52-week peak.
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Market Rally Analysis
The stock market rally got a much-needed bounce Tuesday, with the S&P 500 rebounding back above its 200-day line. The Dow Jones closed just shy of its 200-day line.
Advancers trounced decliners in the broad-based advance.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain below their 21-day lines as well as their early February peaks. Getting above those early February highs, which also line up with the S&P 500's 50-day line, would be a sign of renewed market strength.
But just on Monday, the S&P 500 closed below the low of its Jan. 31 follow-through day, a bearish signal. The Nasdaq undercut its FTD low for a second straight session, but again didn't quite close below it.
The stock market has been headline-driven in recent days. That makes it very difficult to play when the indexes reverse on a dime. Russia/Ukraine headlines are especially tricky because the news may be mistaken, deliberately misleading or lost in translation.
Even if the Ukraine crisis eases and recedes in importance, the market still has to deal with inflation and a hawkish Fed. Fed minutes from the Jan. 25-26 policy meeting are due out Wednesday afternoon.
Growth stocks jumped Tuesday, but with the Nasdaq far below its 200-day line it's hard to get too excited. There have been some positive moves for the broader EV space, including ALB stock, but all of that could quickly reverse.
Travel and transportation names are looking intriguing, including Wyndham, Union Pacific and the JETS ETF.
Energy, fertilizer and metal/mining stocks are doing well in recent weeks, but certainly are prone to big swings.
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What To Do Now
When the market rally has a strong day in a choppy, weak trend, don't just bask in the glow of the headline gains. Take a look at the major indexes' daily and weekly charts to put the move in context. Tuesday's action doesn't seem that significant. So don't use it to significantly ramp up exposure.
If the market rally makes further progress, with the major indexes retaking key levels and quality stocks flashing buy signals, investors could wade further into the pool, but even then don't dive into the deep end. Perhaps Apple stock or Nvidia will be among the next crop of entries, but perhaps not.
For now, build your watchlists. Stay engaged with the market, ready to act. And stay flexible.
Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.
Please follow Ed Carson on Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.
