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Philippa York

Don't be surprised by Pogačar's early dominance, history shows it's how every serial Tour de France winner succeeds - Philippa York analysis

Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar chat before Stage 7 of the Tour de France in Hagetmau, France. With Philippa York's columnist imagery overlaid. (Photo by Tim de Waele/Getty Images).

'The Tour is Over’ was the headline at the conclusion of Thursday's big Pyrenean stage. On the menu for the sixth day of the 2026 Tour de France was the Col d’Aspin, the Col du Tourmalet, and a long uphill grind to the relatively unknown finish in Gavernie-Gèdre. Tadej Pogačar blasts the favourites group apart, and that’s it; the race has taken a direction of travel with only one outcome. Somehow, everyone is surprised, shocked, or appalled. For many, it’s all three emotions, and the culprit is the pre-race favourite who is also the guy chasing a fifth overall victory.

Oh, ye of little memory. Can it really be a surprise that after the first GC rendezvous, there has been a GC sort-out? I mean, what has Tour de France history taught us about this situation? Well, you don’t have to go back to the days of the 'Club des Cinq' to be reminded of how that select group got their campaigns started almost every time they won. They went all in on the first proper GC test, blasted the competition aside and controlled the situation to their advantage from then on.

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