Summary of the day
Robert Fico, leader of the populist Smer party, formally took over as prime minister of Slovakia amid questions about the future direction of the country’s foreign policy.
Donald Tusk, the Polish opposition candidate for prime minister who is set to become the country’s next leader, visited Brussels in a bid to restore Warsaw’s position on the European stage and press for unfreezing EU funds.
Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said that “the voice of Poland is crucial” as she met with Tusk to discuss Ukraine, security, economic policy and EU funds.
Peter Bárdy, editor-in-chief of Aktuality.sk, said Fico “will be the head of the octopus that will want to hijack the state” and “will largely copy Viktor Orbán’s foreign policy.”
Milan Nič, a senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations, said a “big question” is whether other EU leaders will engage with Fico when he attends a summit in Brussels tomorrow.
Michal Ovádek, a lecturer at University College London, said that when it comes to Fico pragmatism “could win out” and that political and economic factors could mitigate illiberal tendencies.
Andrej Matisak, deputy head of the foreign desk at Slovak daily Pravda, said he believes “Fico won’t go to extremes on the EU level, as his focus is domestic, but I also believe that the EU should be ready for a more combative Fico.”
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Slovakia’s new prime minister Robert Fico to attend EU summit
‘A technician of power’: Robert Fico, Slovakia’s veteran populist
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Robert Fico has been appointed Slovakia’s prime minister for the fourth time and will attend an EU summit in Brussels this week, where the nation-first populist’s fellow leaders should get an early indication of how obstructive he intends to be.
President Zuzana Čaputová on Wednesday formally approved the new three-party coalition government led by Fico, whose party won elections last month on pledges to end military aid to Ukraine and slash immigration.
Analysts expect the country to move closer to the unashamedly nationalist policies of Hungary, whose illiberal leader, Viktor Orbán, Fico has said he admires – although many question how far he will follow through on his campaign rhetoric.
Fico’s Smer party finished first in last month’s ballot, with 23% of the vote, and formed a coalition with Hlas, a breakaway party led by the prime minister’s former deputy, Peter Pellegrini, and the ultra-nationalist Slovak National party (SNS).
The decision to govern with SNS led to Smer and Hlas being suspended from the socialist group in the European parliament, while Čaputová last week rejected the coalition’s first choice for environment minister, a climate sceptic.
Read the full story here.
And also check out this profile of Fico – a “burly and brash” veteran politician and “technician of power” – by the Guardian’s Jason Burke.
Updated
A test for Slovak foreign policy will be how Robert Fico, the country’s new prime minister, will position himself at tomorrow’s EU summit – and how he will be received.
Milan Nič, a senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations, noted that Fico is a “veteran politician” who knows many of his fellow European leaders.
The big question is whether they [leaders] will engage with Fico in order not to lose Slovakia, not to push Slovakia under Fico’s government to the margins of European politics, or basically to set him as an outcast, and to push him towards Orbán.
“I don’t think Fico will copy Orbán’s foreign policy – I think he has his own foreign policy … I think rhetorically, he will continue to be more radical,” Nič said, adding however that Fico could be “more pragmatic in action.”
One more factor in the mix is that Slovakia is not out of campaign note, Nič noted, pointing out that the country will hold presidential election next year.
Tusk meets Metsola as Brussels welcomes Warsaw back into fold
Donald Tusk may not be prime minister yet, but the EU’s most senior politicians are openly expressing their relief that Poland is back in Europe’s political mainstream.
After meeting the European Commission chief, Ursula von der Leyen, the Polish politician also sat down with Roberta Metsola, the European parliament’s president.
All three are members of the centre-right European People’s party.
Welcome back to Brussels, @donaldtusk.
— Roberta Metsola (@EP_President) October 25, 2023
Very happy to catch up following the election in Poland.
You can count on @Europarl_EN to work together for a strong Poland and a strong Europe 🇪🇺🇵🇱 pic.twitter.com/bLq1Ry6nV0
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Poland’s president, Andrzej Duda, is continuing his consultations with opposition parties.
W ramach konsultacji z komitetami wyborczymi, które będą miały swoją reprezentację w Sejmie Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej X kadencji, Prezydent @AndrzejDuda przyjął dziś w Pałacu Prezydenckim przedstawicieli KW Nowa Lewica. pic.twitter.com/p0NV9RlSbv
— Kancelaria Prezydenta (@prezydentpl) October 25, 2023
Slovakia formally has a new government. Here’s a photo of President Zuzana Čaputová, a progressive, across from the populist new prime minister, Robert Fico.
Updated
Robert Fico becomes Slovakia's prime minister
Slovakia’s president, Zuzana Čaputová, has formally appointed Robert Fico, leader of the populist Smer party, as prime minister.
He was previously prime minister in 2006-2010 and 2012-2018.
The new government is a coalition consisting of Smer, Hlas and the Slovak National party.
Fico is expected to attend a summit of EU leaders tomorrow in Brussels.
Updated
Elsewhere in the region, Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, is keen to show he has friends.
Look what came in the mail today! Thank you for your support, @realDonaldTrump ! 🇭🇺🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/gBzZAA2kCs
— Orbán Viktor (@PM_ViktorOrban) October 25, 2023
Updated
Slovakia's foreign policy at a crossroads
We asked Peter Bárdy, editor-in-chief of Aktuality.sk and the author of a book on Robert Fico, whether he expected Slovakia’s new government to introduce policy changes.
“Robert Fico has lost any ambition to have a government of experts and respected politicians. Instead, they will form a government of loyal ministers, from whom they do not expect professional leadership of ministries, but blind obedience,” Bárdy said.
They will be the tentacles of his system, where he will be the head of the octopus that will want to hijack the state.
Bárdy said he expected changes in foreign policy.
Fico’s government will largely copy Viktor Orbán’s foreign policy, which is based on nationalism, chauvinism and false protection of traditional European values. It is possible that they will spread Kremlin narratives trying to weaken the internal unity of the EU and NATO, either in the field of military aid to Ukraine, or in matters of the protection of liberal democracy.
Updated
New Slovak government's illiberalism will be mitigated, academic says
We asked Michal Ovádek, a lecturer in European institutions, politics and policy at University College London, what to expect as a new government comes to office in Slovakia.
“The new Slovak government can be described as nationalist and socially conservative. But given the pragmatism of its two central figures – Robert Fico and Peter Pellegrini – the key question is how much will government policies match campaign rhetoric,” he said.
On the campaign trail, both SMER and SNS have clearly charted a path to illiberalism, taking inspiration from Viktor Orbán. Even if only a handful of campaign promises became reality, this government would be bad news for LGBTQ people, the rule of law and public scrutiny (NGOs and media). It has the potential to damage Slovakia’s reputation in the EU and NATO, both with its domestic policies and closer alignment with Hungary.
But, he said, he expects “three factors to mitigate the illiberal and undemocratic excesses of the new government”.
The first is the relative lack of popular support. Fico’s mandate is nothing like Orban’s. The government will command a slim majority in the parliament and only two of the coalition parties are ideologically (or at least rhetorically) committed to illiberalism. However, all three coalition partners have an interest in making sure the police, prosecution and judiciary stop pursuing corruption cases involving “their people”. The second and third mitigating factors are related and have to do with the state of the economy. With rising debt and middling growth, there is little scope for the kind of government spending that boosted the popularity of Fico’s previous governments without drawing unwanted attention from financial markets. For the same reason, the government will have to balance its appetite for illiberal or undemocratic policies against triggering EU conditionality mechanisms.
When it comes to foreign policy, Ovádek said, pragmatism might prevail.
The government promised no major deviations from EU and Nato commitments, despite some SNS-affiliated voices calling for a referendum on Nato membership. Diplomatically, the government is likely to be less of a friend to Ukraine than preceding governments, but this is an area where pragmatism (business interests) could win out.
Updated
The Polish president, Andrzej Duda, has met the opposition politician Szymon Hołownia.
W ramach konsultacji z komitetami wyborczymi, które będą miały swoją reprezentację w Sejmie Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej X kadencji, Prezydent @AndrzejDuda przyjął dziś w Pałacu Prezydenckim przedstawicieli KKW Trzecia Droga Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Polska 2050 Szymona Hołowni. pic.twitter.com/ToFt8nUusp
— Kancelaria Prezydenta (@prezydentpl) October 25, 2023
Updated
Why did Law and Justice lose Poland’s election?
Stanley Bill, a professor at the University of Cambridge, has an analysis of the diverse factors that led to Law and Justice’s decline in the polls, from massive women’s protests to the pandemic, an animal rights bill unpopular with party base and opposition cooperation.
Causes of PiS's defeat [THREAD]: much analysis, including from PiS-linked figures, treats the October 2020 moment and abortion ruling as key to PiS's decline. As I noted a year ago, PiS faced uphill battle since the drop in support it then experienced. But what were factors? 1/ https://t.co/tD6TRLWsQ3
— Stanley Bill (@StanleySBill) October 25, 2023
Tusk makes bid to 'save' Poland's EU funds
Poland must use all methods possible to access frozen EU funds, Donald Tusk said today, Reuters reported.
“I am here as the leader of the opposition, not as the prime minister, but time is passing,” he said in a televised news conference.
I had to take this initiative before final decisions were made, because all methods, including non-standard ones, had to be used to save the money that Poland deserves.
What’s the status of Poland’s government formation process?
Leaders of the three-way opposition alliance that won an overall majority in Poland’s elections have said they are ready to take power with Donald Tusk as prime minister, as the country’s president began consultations on forming a new government.
The three groups aiming to form the next government – Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO), the centre-right Third Way and the New Left – urged the president, Andrzej Duda, a close ally of the ruling nationalist Law & Justice (PiS) party, not to delay the process.
PiS had already “wasted eight years of our lives”, said Szymon Hołownia of Poland 2050, part of the Third Way group. “They took us back 50 years, instead of pushing us forward. That’s why we appeal to President Duda not to waste another second.”
Third Way’s co-leader, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, said the parties were “determined to form a majority”. He added: “Together we will nominate, today and tomorrow at the president’s office, our candidate for prime minister, Donald Tusk.”
Tusk is in Brussels today to try to unlock more than €100bn of frozen funds for Poland that have been blocked because of rule-of-law concerns under PiS.
Read the full story here.
Updated
All eyes on Fico as Slovakia prepares for new government
Slovakia’s president is expected to appoint a new government today, led by populist former prime minister Robert Fico.
“Should the members of the European Council ask Robert Fico if he plans to follow the footstep of Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán and to shake hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin? It could be a valid question,” said Andrej Matisak, deputy head of the foreign desk at Slovak daily Pravda.
Matisak noted that Fico will arrive for a summit in Brussels on Thursday for the first time since the murder of journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancee Martina Kušnírová in February 2018, which sparked protests and led to his resignation.
But after an election last month, Fico’s Smer party is now forming a coalition with Hlas – an offshoot of Smer – and the Slovak National Party. And European officials are now watching to see if he will adopt a more Russia-friendly foreign policy.
“So what will Fico do at the EU level? He said that if he would be a prime minister he would participate at the the Belt and Road forum in Beijing … Does Fico also meet Putin, and if he wants, what kind of message he wants to convey to the President of Russia that is waging a brutal war against Ukraine?” asked Matisak.
There are “signs that Fico is less concerned about his image abroad [than] in the past,” he said, adding that “Fico is also personally close to Orbán and the Hungarian PM, not having too many options in the EU, can try to court a Slovak colleague even more.”
I still believe that Fico won’t go to extremes on the EU level, as his focus is domestic, but I also believe that the EU should be ready for a more combative Fico as in the past. Plus with an openly pro-Russian Slovak Nationalist Party in the government, his room for pragmatism might be also politically constrained.
Opinion polling by the Pew Research Center shows how perceptions of the EU differ within Europe – and also within central Europe.
Meanwhile in Hungary
As Donald Tusk open a new chapter in Poland’s relationship with its European partners, Hungary’s relations with its partners are reaching new lows.
In an opinion piece for the Guardian, Hungarian opposition politician and member of the European parliament Katalin Cseh sketches out her concerns about Budapest’s foreign policy.
Orbán’s camaraderie with Putin is not just shameful; it is alarming. That a member of the European Council, which makes crucial foreign policy decisions for the EU, keeps such company, is deeply concerning.
Also distressing is the EU’s inaction in the face of Orbán’s behaviour. For a decade, the EU has procrastinated on concrete action. It took years of relentless pressure from us, European parliament lawmakers, for the European Commission (the EU’s executive) to apply sanctions against the Orbán government for its democratic backsliding.
Updated
Purpose is to rebuild Poland's position in Europe, Tusk says
Speaking in Brussels this morning, Donald Tusk said his purpose was to rebuild Poland’s standing on the continent.
Almost 10 years ago, in my first speech as a president of the European Council, I said that I came to Brussels with a strong sense of purpose. And I think I can repeat these words also today. This purpose today is to rebuild the position of my country in Europe, and to strengthen the EU as a whole.
The results of the elections in Poland and the amazing turnout … showed clearly to the whole of Europe, I think, that democracy, rule of law, freedom of speech, European unity, are still really important to our citizens.
I am really proud of my compatriots. They have proved that the anti-democratic and anti-European mood doesn’t have to be a trend, that it’s just seasonal turbulence – I hope. I’m so proud to be a Pole, and to be a European. We all have proved to ourselves, but also to the world, that if you believe in change, if you make an effort, it will pay off – and it did.”
Updated
Von der Leyen and Tusk to discuss Ukraine, economy
Speaking alongside Poland’s Donald Tusk at the European Commission headquarters in Brussels, Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said this morning that the high turnout in the Polish election “has shown once again that Poles are strongly attached to democracy.”
We will be discussing important issues today, in which the voice of Poland is crucial.
The Commission chief pointed to “the war at the borders of our union, and the continued support for Ukraine,” praising Poles for their solidarity.
Von der Leyen also said they would discuss the future of Europe’s security architecture and modernising the EU’s economy.
We will talk about democracy in Europe, and all those values that are at the heart of the European Union.
The two politicians will also discuss Poland’s recovery funding.
“I know that Donald Tusk and I will find a lot of common ground on all these issues,” von der Leyen said.
Updated
What’s next for Poland?
In an opinion piece for the Guardian, political scientist Ivan Krastev writes that the outcome of the Polish election makes Europe’s turn to the right appear less irreversible.
The future is never as bright as it is portrayed in the speeches of the winners on election night. The opposition has won, but these elections reconfirmed the existence of two Polands, and this second, Kaczyński’s Poland, will not disappear. The new governing coalition will also not be an easy one. The opposition’s victory does not mean that mistrust of Germany will disappear or that Polish criticism of Germany was wrong in the first place.
But this victory does signal both a political change in Poland and a mood change in Europe. Europe’s turn to the right now looks less irreversible.
Read the full story here.
Welcome to the blog
Good morning and welcome back to the Europe blog.
Today we will be looking at the latest in Slovakia and Poland, where new governments are in the making following parliamentary elections.
Send your comments to lili.bayer@theguardian.com.
Donald Tusk heads to Brussels for talks
Donald Tusk, the Polish opposition politician who is now set to (once again) become prime minister, will meet with senior EU officials in Brussels today.
Poland’s opposition performed well in the country’s 15 October election, and three opposition parties have declared their intent to form a government with Tusk as candidate for prime minister.
Tusk is a well-respected figure in Europe, having previously served as president of the European Council.
“Tusk is coming to Brussels to send a strong signal that his future government will be firmly committed to the goal of restoration of the rule of law and judicial independence,” said Piotr Buras, head of the Warsaw office at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
The Polish politician, Buras told the Guardian this morning, “hopes that such a political declaration may bring a breakthrough in the talks about the RRF [Recovery and Resilience] funds for Poland which the Commission has blocked due to severe violations if the rule of law by the PiS government.”
“Due to President Andrzej Duda’s opposition to legal changes required by the Commission … Tusk can not promise that a new law expected by the Commission as a precondition to release the funds would enter into force quickly,” the think tanker noted.
So, his hope is that his political credibility and good will suffice to convince the Commission to unlock the money. This is extemely important for Poland and for Tusk himself as it has been one of his key electoral promises.
