Mark Rutte, the new head of Nato, has brushed off anxieties about the possible election of Donald Trump, arguing that the US would risk isolation in “a harsh, uncompromising world” if he sought to withdraw from the military alliance.
Speaking in London on Thursday, after meeting the prime minister, Keir Starmer, and Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Rutte said he believed both Trump and his presidential rival, Kamala Harris, recognised the value of continuing military aid to Ukraine.
But 10 days into the job as secretary general, the Dutchman also responded to concerns raised by the Republican nominee that levels of defence spending in Europe would have to rise, and indicated that a new target of 2.5% or 3% of GDP could be set.
In an interview with the Guardian, Rutte said he was “not that worried about Donald Trump, as I am not worried about Kamala Harris” and went on to describe the former president as “somebody who wants to defend the US”. That, he argued, required Nato membership because “without membership he is alone, and in a harsh, uncompromising world he needs the alliance”.
Trump has long been a Nato sceptic, arguing the US contributes too much relative to Europe, and at one point in his presidency in 2018 he reportedly considered leaving the alliance. In March, however, the Republican candidate said he would remain in Nato as long as European countries “play fair” and did not “take advantage” of high levels of US defence spending.
Appearing to reflect such concerns, Rutte said he believed defence spending in Europe would have to rise from its existing average of 2% of GDP across the 31 members of Nato, apart from the US. “We are now on 2% but clearly it’s not enough because we can look at all the capability gaps, the targets we have, and then we really need to do more,” he said.
Setting a spending level target higher than 2% was a discussion Nato members needed to have, but Rutte said whether it would be “2.5% or 3% or more, that is something we have to debate”. Even at 2.5% that would require every Nato member, apart from Poland, Greece and the Baltic states, to spend more on defence.
In Britain, the Labour government has promised to increase defence spending from 2.32% of GDP to 2.5% but has not set out a timetable to do so. Rutte said he had encouraged Starmer “to reach it as soon as possible”, though he said the precise timetable was up to the British government.
Rutte said he had met Trump “several times” during his 14 years as Dutch prime minister, while he said he met Harris for a “long sit-down” over dinner at a Ukraine summit in Lucerne, Switzerland, in June. But he said he had no immediate plans to meet either candidate before November’s presidential election.
When it came to support for Ukraine, Rutte said he believed Trump would continue with delivering billions in military aid for Kyiv, even though the Republican has repeatedly said he wants the war to stop and his vice-presidential nominee, JD Vance, has suggested a peace settlement that would freeze the conflict on the current frontlines.
“If [Vladimir] Putin would get his way, we will all be under threat, because it won’t end with Ukraine,” Rutte said. “He [Trump] knows this and Kamala Harris knows this. And that is why I’m absolutely convinced that if he becomes president, that he will continue supplying support to Ukraine.”
An analysis by Germany’s Kiel University, which tracks western military aid to Ukraine, has concluded that the value of arms supplied would slump to €34bn (£28.5bn) from a projected €59bn if US aid was completely withdrawn.
Ukraine would also be likely to suffer significantly on the battlefield, as it did at the beginning of the year when Republicans in the US Congress prevented aid being voted through.
Rutte, however, offered little fresh hope for Ukraine’s ambition of joining the military alliance while the war is ongoing – or any concrete intermediate steps towards membership either. He focused on a declaration at last summer’s Nato summit in Washington DC, which concluded that Ukraine was on an “irreversible path” to membership at some unspecified future date.
That meant, Rutte said, that “Ukraine ultimately will be a part of Nato”, though raised the question of when. “Obviously, that’s not something I can answer,” he said. “We have to make clear to Putin that he has no vote or veto on that decision.”
