Donald Trump has sunk to a net favourability rating of minus 12 points with the American public, falling 46 points behind Pope Leo XIV, as new polling lays bare the political cost of attacking America's first-ever native-born pontiff.
An NBC News survey conducted by Hart Research Associates between 27 February and 3 March 2026 found that 42% of registered American voters view Pope Leo XIV favourably, against just 8% unfavourably, a net positive of 34 points.
By contrast, 41% view Trump favourably and 53% unfavourably, a net score of minus 12. The gap of 46 points between the two men has become the defining data point of a week in which Trump publicly branded Leo 'WEAK on Crime' and 'terrible for Foreign Policy,' and posted an AI-generated image of himself as a Jesus-like figure which he later deleted.
The 46-Point Polling Gap Between Trump and Pope Leo XIV
The NBC News poll, administered by Hart Research Associates and Public Opinion Strategies, surveyed 1,000 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. It is the most comprehensive head-to-head favourability comparison of the two men produced to date.
Pope Leo scored a net positive of 34 points, the highest of any figure tested, sitting ahead of late-night host Stephen Colbert (plus 10), Secretary of State Marco Rubio (minus 7), Vice President JD Vance (minus 11), and Trump (minus 12).
Maybe Trump's jealous of the Pope?... It's a blowout favoring the Pope in terms of popularity in America.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) April 13, 2026
The Pope's net popularity rating: +34 pt. Trump: -12 pt.
With American Catholics specifically, they agree with the Pope on the war: it has a -10 pt net approval with them. pic.twitter.com/7cdIX3hkZx
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten, presenting the findings on CNN's News Central programme on 13 April 2026, said the result amounted to 'a blowout.' Enten noted that Trump had beaten Kamala Harris by 20 points among American Catholics in the November 2024 presidential election, according to CNN exit polling, but that the same Fox News survey from late March now put Catholic net approval for Trump at minus four points. 'Down he goes, down he goes, into the Dead Sea,' Enten said, adding: 'I believe the president is making a humongous mistake going after the most popular guy in America.'
Half of NBC poll respondents said their view of Leo was either neutral or uncertain, which polling analysts note could mean the pope's ceiling has not yet been reached. Historical comparisons from NBC News data show Pope John Paul II reached 65% favourability in January 1998, and Pope Francis peaked at 57% in December 2013. Leo's current trajectory, at 42% positive and climbing, sits within that historical range, but his political moment is sharper than either predecessor faced with a sitting US president.
Catholic Approval Slides From Trump Landslide to Negative Territory
Catholics make up roughly 22% of the American electorate, according to Pew Research Center data from the 2024 cycle, and they are the largest swing religious group in American politics. In 2024, 55% of Catholic voters backed Trump against Harris's 43%, a 12-point margin confirmed by Pew. That represented a significant swing from 2020, when Catholics split almost evenly: 50% for Biden, 49% for Trump.
The Fox News national poll conducted 20 to 23 March, jointly run by Democratic firm Beacon Research and Republican firm Shaw and Company Research, found that 48 % of Catholic voters now approve of Trump's job performance while 52 % disapprove.
The breakdown reveals the depth of the break: 40% of Catholics strongly disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president, while only 23% strongly approve. That swing from a 12-point Catholic margin in 2024 to a minus four net approval in March 2026 represents a 16-point collapse in 16 months.
Pew Research Center tracking data cited by Axios on 13 April 2026 shows Trump's approval among white Catholics fell from 59% in February 2025 to 52 % in January 2026, before the Iran war intensified and before the current Vatican confrontation.
Andrew Chesnut, Catholic studies chair at Virginia Commonwealth University, told Axios: 'I cannot think of any parallels, at least coming from Western Christian majority countries, of such pointed and public attacks on the Pope.'
Catholics Break Against the Iran War, Citing Pope Leo's Moral Authority
The polling makes clear that Trump's problem with Catholics runs deeper than the personal feud with Leo. The Fox News March survey found that only 40% of Catholics approve of how Trump has handled the conflict with Iran, with 60% disapproving. On the core question of military force, 55% of Catholics oppose it and 45% support it. Enten, citing Fox News polling on CNN, said that among Catholics specifically, net approval for US military action in Iran stands at minus 10 points, and net approval for Trump's conduct toward Iran is minus 20 points.
Pope Leo has been explicit and public in his opposition. On 10 April 2026, Leo posted on X: 'God does not bless any conflict. Anyone who is a disciple of Christ, the Prince of Peace, is never on the side of those who once wielded the sword and today drop bombs.'
When Trump later said that 'a whole civilisation will die tonight' if Iran failed to meet a US deadline, Leo, speaking to reporters near Rome, called the threat 'truly unacceptable.' The pope described the language as targeting 'all the people of Iran' as a collective. Leo responded to Trump's Truth Social attack on 13 April by saying he had 'no fear of the Trump administration' and that he would 'continue to speak out loudly against war.'
Catholic scholars argue the dynamic is not simply partisan. John White, professor emeritus of politics at The Catholic University of America, told EWTN News that Trump's 2024 coalition 'is now in tatters and Catholics are no exception.' He added: 'It is not unreasonable to assume that there is a higher level of cognitive dissonance among Catholics who support Trump but are hearing the words of the pope. For some, that may result in their shifting opinions.' Susan Hanssen, a history professor at the University of Dallas, noted that many Catholics had backed Trump in 2024 precisely in the hope he would end foreign military engagements, the opposite of what has materialised.
A president who won the White House with Catholic votes on a promise of strength has spent the weeks since Easter turning his most electorally loyal church into his sharpest institutional critic.
