With two criminal indictments and several more possible, Donald Trump carries more legal baggage than any presidential candidate in history.
In the past, a candidate with such legal problems would be unelectable. But Trump has helped reshape political norms and how Americans view institutions, including the criminal justice system and the media.
Even Americans who don’t like Trump have been affected by his drama. And the few who haven’t made up their minds about him are tired of it all. Though cable news viewership, particularly MSNBC, was up during the week of Trump’s indictment coverage, the news accounts felt like an afterthought as many Americans have grown numb over Trump’s antics.
Still, the scandal-plagued Trump is thriving — politically. Polls show the former president with an average lead of 31% over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, his nearest challenger in the GOP presidential primary. The Real Clear Politics average of polls puts Trump at 52% in the crowded GOP presidential field.
In the days after a federal indictment over his handling of classified documents, Trump says he hauled in $6.6 million in campaign donations.
A rematch between Trump and Biden in the 2024 presidential election looks more likely today than it did in the months after the 2020 presidential election, when Trump espoused baseless accusations that the 2020 election was stolen from him.
It all suggests that the nation is in an era when many voters don’t care about scandal or public corruption allegations against elected officials or candidates for public office. They give their preferred candidates the benefit of the doubt, if not blind loyalty.
Texas-based Republican political consultant Matthew Langston, who has had past interactions with Trump’s political team, said the former president’s personality, political message and defiance give him the ability to manage what would be “killer issues” for other candidates.
“They view it as a deep-state assault on Donald Trump,” he said. “That’s a phrase he’s built from the beginning of his presidency and it’s given him the ability to deflect what would ordinarily be strong negatives against practically any other candidate.”
Langston said Republicans, even those who don’t like Trump, are against the legal actions aimed against him. Most of his rivals in the presidential contest, even as they criticized Trump’s fitness to be president again, have raised questions about the indictments against him.
“Republicans are looking at this as an assault from the opposing party to destroy his presidential campaign, whether you’re a Trump fan or not,” he said.
Trump has been impeached twice. Along with the classified documents probe, he’s been indicted by a Manhattan grand jury on felony charges related to hush money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels. The former president is bracing for charges that could come from an election tampering investigation in Georgia. He’s also a major figure in a special counsel investigation regarding the Jan. 6 Capitol attack and attempts to overturn the 2020 election.
It’s possible that the weight of these legal problems will — at some point — bring down Trump. But it seems more likely that he’ll continue to have support from a loyal base. And that gives him an edge in a crowded primary field.
Trump isn’t the first national or local candidate to be embraced by loyal constituents amid legal trouble.
In 2014, before the era of Trump began, Republican Ken Paxton was elected attorney general, despite the stench of a securities fraud probe. He was indicted on related charges in 2015 and reelected twice as the case stalled in court.
Last month the Texas House voted to impeach Paxton over bribery allegations related to Austin real estate developer Nate Paul, who earlier this month was arrested by the FBI on “undetermined” felony charges. The state Senate will hold his trial, with Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick as the judge.
Paxton, who is not as popular as Trump, enjoys support with conservative Texas voters and his legal problems did not cripple his political campaigns. Without the possibility of being removed from office, he would be in line for higher political office. He was once mentioned as a future candidate for governor.
Many conservative voters and activists have rallied on behalf of Paxton, which could put GOP lawmakers who speak against him in a political bind. The 2024 elections will provide an opportunity for voter retribution.
Texas senators are in a position to do what voters would not: remove Paxton for office. That doesn’t sit well with his supporters, but it’s part of the system.
“The electorate seems to be in support of Paxton,” Langston said. “Knowing that, it’s going to be incredibly challenging for senators to remove an elected office holder.”
Trump’s tangles with the law are entering uncharted territory. He could face a series of trials in the heat of the 2024 election.
The primary and general elections provide the former president with a unique opportunity. Not only can he reclaim the White House, but winning would mean he would be in a position to scrap the classified documents probe and pardon himself against any pending legal action.
Never before has an election held such high stakes.
If legal action against Trump doesn’t manifest before the election and he loses, it would mean he’ll be a defendant without the power of the presidency.
At that point, it won’t matter how his supporters feel about the process or what the latest political polls reflect.
He’ll either be innocent or guilty in a court of law.
