The Guardian’s Robert Tait sums up the state of the presidential race for Kamala Harris in this new piece. While the vice-president and her allies have brought in a massive $1b in donations since she launched her campaign, all signs point to her being tied with Donald Trump in the state’s that count most:
Kamala Harris’s campaign has raised a record-breaking $1bn within 80 days of her becoming the Democrats’ nominee yet has failed to translate her cash advantage over Donald Trump into a poll advantage in the key battleground states that will probably decide the election.
The vice-president’s fundraising haul, first reported by NBC, dwarfs the $309m raised by Trump’s campaign by the end of August, and equals the amount brought in by Joe Biden for his entire 2020 campaign.
But Democrats’ joy over the bounty is being tempered by a lack of evidence that it is giving her the edge she will need in the battleground states to win enough of them to affect the election outcome in her favor.
In the latest warning sign for the vice-president, a Quinnipiac university poll published on Wednesday showed her trailing Trump by two and three points respectively in Wisconsin and Michigan – states which, along with Pennsylvania, Democrats have labelled the “blue wall”.
The survey showed Trump ahead by 48-46% in Wisconsin and 50-47% in Michigan. Harris has a narrow lead in most nationwide polls.
Harris maintains a three-point advantage in Pennsylvania, according to Quinnipiac, as Barack Obama arrives in the state to campaign for Harris. The former president will headline a Thursday rally in Pittsburgh, where he is expected to urge naturally pro-Democrat voters to turn out for the 5 November poll.
From the Associated Press, here’s more on the death of Ethel Kennedy, and the legacy she leaves behind:
Ethel Kennedy, the widow of Senator Robert F. Kennedy who raised their 11 children after he was assassinated and remained dedicated to social causes and the family’s legacy for decades thereafter, died on Thursday, her family said. She was 96.
Kennedy had been hospitalized after suffering a stroke in her sleep on 3 October, her family said.
“It is with our hearts full of love that we announce the passing of our amazing grandmother,” Joe Kennedy III posted on X. “She died this morning from complications related to a stroke suffered last week.”
The Kennedy matriarch, whose children were Kathleen, Joseph II, Robert Jr, David, Courtney, Michael, Kerry, Christopher, Max, Douglas and Rory, was one of the last remaining member of a generation that included President John F Kennedy. Her family said she had recently enjoyed seeing many of her relatives, before falling ill.
“She has had a great summer and transition into fall,” said a family statement, issued after she was hospitalized. “Every day she enjoyed time with her children, nieces, nephews, grandchildren and great-grandchildren. She was able to get out on the water, visit the pier and enjoy many lunches and dinners with family. It has been a gift to all of us and to her as well.”
Ethel Kennedy, widow of senator Robert F Kennedy, dead at 96
Ethel Kennedy, a noted human rights campaigner whose husband Robert F Kennedy was assassinated in the midst of the 1968 presidential campaign, has died at the age of 96.
Her grandson, Joe Kennedy III, confirmed her death:
It is with our hearts full of love that we announce the passing of our amazing grandmother, Ethel Kennedy. She died this morning from complications related to a stroke suffered last week. Along with a lifetime's work in social justice and human rights, our mother leaves behind…
— Joe Kennedy III (@joekennedy) October 10, 2024
Rightwing site Gateway Pundit settles lawsuit from Georgia election workers
Georgia election workers Shaye Moss and Ruby Freeman have settled their lawsuit against far-right site the Gateway Pundit, who they accused of defaming them following the 2020 election.
Here’s more on the agreement, from the Guardian’s Sam Levine:
The Gateway Pundit, the far-right news website that played a critical role in spreading false information about the 2020 election, has settled a defamation lawsuit with Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss, two Georgia election workers it falsely accused of wrongdoing.
Notice of the settlement was filed in circuit court in Missouri, where Freeman and Moss had sued the site for defamation. Terms of the settlement were not disclosed in the filing.
The two women have settled suits with One America News, another far-right outlet. But the settlement with the Gateway Pundit is significant because the site was particularly influential in peddling false claims about the election.
The site’s founder, Jim Hoft, had refused to concede that the site said anything false about the women, even though the state quickly debunked accusations of wrongdoing and a longer investigation formally cleared them. The site had declared bankruptcy in an attempt to delay the case, but a judge dismissed the effort earlier this year.
You will not be surprised to learn that the Trump campaign says the inflation data is proof the economy will be worse under Kamala Harris.
In a statement, national press secretary Karoline Leavitt pointed to the fact that month-on-month inflation was slightly higher than expected (rising at 0.2% when 0.1% growth was predicted) and that prices overall have risen over the past three years (but without mentioning that wages have risen, too).
“If Kamala is given another four years, our economy will nosedive into the worst depression this country has ever seen. Americans will continue to be robbed of their paychecks with astronomical inflation and higher taxes. There is only one solution to fix our economy: re-electing President Trump. He’s a businessman with a proven track record of success and will turn Kamala’s worsening economy around on day one,” Leavitt said.
Public opinion polls have recently shown that the economy is the most important issues to voters, and many indicate Donald Trump is seen as better able to handle it.
White House cheers as inflation grows at slowest rate since early 2021
Following the release of September consumer price data that confirms inflation has dropped dramatically since reaching a four-decade high earlier in Joe Biden’s term, the White House’s top economist Lael Brainard said the country is making progress in controlling costs.
“Today’s report shows inflation has fallen back down to 2.4%, the same rate as right before the pandemic. We keep making progress, with inflation returning to pre-pandemic levels, 16 million jobs created, lower interest rates, and low unemployment,” said Brainard, who is the president’s national economic adviser.
“President Biden and Vice-President Harris will keep fighting to lower costs – by building new homes to lower rents, capping prescription drug costs and reducing health insurance premiums, and lowering taxes for middle-class families – as congressional Republicans keep pushing trickle-down economics that would raise costs by nearly $4,000 per family while cutting taxes for billionaires and big corporations.”
Here’s more on the inflation data, and what it means for the world’s largest economy:
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As Florida begins to assess the damage wrought overnight by Hurricane Milton, youth climate activists are calling for a presidential town hall focused on the federal response to the extreme weather events.
Activists with the youth-led Sunrise Movement are asking cable networks to hold a town hall in North Carolina, where hundreds of people were killed this month by Hurricane Helene. They propose 17 October, the day early voting begins in the battleground southern state.
“Media networks need to do their jobs and host a Hurricane Town Hall,” said Shiva Rajbhandari, a 20-year-old North Carolina student. “In just the last two weeks, millions of people have been affected and thousands have lost their homes, loved ones and livelihoods. I’m sick of seeing death count headlines and pretending like this is just an act of God. The climate crisis is here, it’s caused by big oil, and the American people deserve to know what our future President will do to keep us safe and hold the fossil fuel industry accountable for its crimes against humanity.”
They are pitching the town hall as a way to address rampant misinformation that has flourished in the aftermath of the disasters. Donald Trump has amplified falsehoods that the Biden administration misdirected Fema funds to house undocumented migrants and that only people who lost their homes were eligible for $750 federal payments.
A town hall is unlikely at this stage – Trump has rebuffed calls for a second debate. His running mate JD Vance is in North Carolina today, and Kamala Harris will return to the state this weekend.
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A tidbit on Joe Biden’s relationship with Ron DeSantis.
Earlier this week, the Florida governor declined to take a call about Hurricane Milton from Kamala Harris because its purpose “seemed political”, an aide to DeSantis told NBC News. The vice-president, in turn, criticized the governor, calling the decision “irresponsible” and “selfish”.
Biden nonetheless spoke warmly of DeSantis yesterday, saying “he’s been very gracious” in terms of the response to Milton. NBC News now reports that Biden wasn’t aware of the tension between Harris and the governor. Here’s more:
That Biden didn’t include a response about her wasn’t meant as a jab at Harris, whom he endorsed as the Democratic nominee to replace him when he stepped aside from the top of the ticket on July 21. Biden hadn’t been briefed about the dynamic involving Harris and DeSantis, the person familiar with the situation said.
“He wasn’t tracking a specific back-and-forth,” the source said, adding that Biden was “focused on the response itself”. The person was granted anonymity to speak freely about the matter.
DeSantis ripped Harris on Fox News this week, charging that it was she who was trying to insert politics into the recovery.
“I’ve had storms under both President Trump and President Biden, and I’ve worked well with both of them,” he said. “She’s the first one who’s trying to politicize the storm, and she’s doing that just because of her campaign. I don’t have time for political games.”
Here’s more on the spat:
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Biden and DeSantis talk after Hurricane Milton sweeps through state
With Hurricane Milton’s remnants now over the Atlantic Ocean after slicing across central Florida, Joe Biden spoke with the state’s Republican governor Ron DeSantis about the storm’s impacts.
“The Governor said they are still assessing the damage across the state. He thanked the president for the extensive federal support to prepare for and respond to the storm. The president reiterated that he will provide any support the state needs to speed response and recovery,” the White House said.
After a short-lived campaign for the White House, DeSantis is now backing Donald Trump and routinely criticizes Biden, but the pair have put their differences aside repeatedly to collaborate on hurricane response over the past three years.
Floridians are surveying the damage wrought by Milton, which appears not to have caused as much destruction as expected. Follow our live blog for the latest:
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Another crucial race in determining Senate control is in Pennsylvania, where Democrat Bob Casey is standing for re-election against Republican David McCormick. The Guardian’s Martin Pengelly reports that newly unearthed documents show ties between McCormick and Russian borrowers:
David McCormick, the Republican candidate for US Senate in Pennsylvania, led the largest hedge fund in the world while it managed and advised funds holding hundreds of millions of dollars in Russian debt, documents obtained by the Guardian show.
Filings with the US Department of Labor, known as form 5500s, show that from 2017 to 2021, Bridgewater Associates managed funds holding as much as $415m in Russian sovereign bonds. Since 2019 these types of investment have been subject to increasingly stringent US sanctions, in response to Russian aggression in Ukraine.
Holding such assets is not illegal, but the question of McCormick’s work with foreign investments and how it might influence his political career has already coloured his current campaign, against the incumbent Democratic senator, Bob Casey.
McCormick stepped down as Bridgewater CEO in 2022, in order to run for Congress and a month before Russia mounted a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But sanctions were first levied three years before that when, according to the firm itself, as co-CEO from 2017 to 2020 and then as sole CEO, McCormick was responsible for “overseeing the firm’s strategy, governance, and operations”.
McCormick himself has said about his time as Bridgewater boss: “Whatever we did I’m responsible for.”
Poll spells trouble for Democrats' hopes of keeping Senate majority
The presidential race may be anyone’s to lose, but the GOP has long been viewed as the favorite to take the Senate back in November.
The Democrats have a 51-49 majority in the chamber, but are almost certain to lose one seat due to West Virginia senator Joe Manchin’s retirement. Their only hope of keeping control next year is to win the re-election of senators representing red states Montana and Ohio, or pick up seats in Texas and Florida, both Republican territory. Even if they manage to win 50 seats, a Donald Trump victory would make them the minority party, as JD Vance would cast the tie-breaking vote to put the GOP in control.
A just-released poll from the New York Times and Siena College shows Democratic candidates trailing in three of those states. In Montana, incumbent Jon Tester is behind his Republican challenger Tim Sheehy by seven points – a result that, if confirmed, would be enough to flip the chamber to the GOP on its own.
The latest Times/Siena polls give Republicans the lead in the Senate races in Montana, Florida and Texas, giving the party a clear path to Senate control.
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 10, 2024
Texas: Cruz+4
Montana: Sheehy+7
Florida: Scott+9https://t.co/Akbdqy7JE4
As for those pickup opportunities, the poll indicates they are not looking so good for Democrats. In Texas, incumbent Ted Cruz is up by four points over Democrat Colin Allred, while in Florida, Rick Scott has a whopping nine-point advantage over his challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
The one state not polled is Ohio, where Democrat Sherrod Brown has been leading by a small margin in recent surveys.
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Seeking an edge for Harris, youth voter group steps up outreach to gen Z
As the 2024 election enters its final weeks, Voters of Tomorrow says it has made more than 5 million “direct contacts” with young people – a milestone for the gen Z-led voter outreach organisation.
“This election will be decided by a few thousand voters in key battleground states – and they could very well be young people,” said Santiago Mayer, the 22-year-old executive director of Voters of Tomorrow. “That’s why every contact we make is critical.”
With voting already under way in many states, the teens and twentysomethings behind the group say they’re just getting started. Mayer said the group, which endorsed Kamala Harris, was “on track to more than triple” their effort, which includes making phone calls, sending texts and organizing their friends, families and classmates.
Much of their recent work was focused on voter registration, but as deadlines close they are shifting to making sure young people have a plan for how to vote on election day. In an endorsement of their tactics, Voters of Tomorrow recently announced that it raised over $1m last quarter, a record sum for the years-old organization.
Voters of Tomorrow is partnering with other youth-focused groups, including March for Our Lives, People Power for Florida, and Swifties for Kamala, to co-host phone and text banks in critical battleground states and districts
Approximately 41 million members of gen Z are eligible to vote this year, including millions who were too young to vote in 2020. A national NYT/Siena College survey found likely voters under 30 prefer Harris to Trump 58%-37%. Joe Biden carried the youth vote by a similar margin in 2020.
“Too much is on the line for gen Z to stay home this election,” Mayer said.
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Trump appears to close door for good on debating Harris before 5 November election
It looks like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will not be debating again before the 5 November election. While the vice-president’s campaign insisted the invitation for a second debate remained on the table, Trump, in a Truth Social post written in his customary all-caps style, yesterday evening said: “THERE WILL BE NO REMATCH!” He made a point of mentioning Harris’s comment days ago that she would not do anything differently than Joe Biden, words the GOP has seized on to argue her election would represent a continuation of the unpopular president’s policies.
With that apparently settled, let’s talk about the state of the race. Less than four weeks to election day, there still is no clear frontrunner. Per our own tracker, Harris has an aggregate lead in five of the swing states expected to decide the race, and Trump in two, Arizona and Georgia. But their margins are slim, and every day brings new polling that often undercuts assumptions about the state of the race. Consider surveys released by Quinnipac University yesterday that found Harris leading in perhaps the most vital swing state, Pennsylvania, but trailing Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin. That data flies in the face of other polls that show her performing better in the latter two battlegrounds but trailing in Pennsylvania, or winning all three.
Here’s what else is happening today:
Barack Obama is hitting the campaign trail for Harris, with an event planned in Pittsburgh at 7pm ET. Harris will be in Las Vegas, with an event planned at 7pm, while JD Vance is hosting a town hall in Greensboro, North Carolina.
Inflation continued to ebb in September, according to just-released data from the labor department. The annual increase in consumer prices was 2.4%, its smallest since February 2021. The issue is nonetheless expected to remain politically potent.
Hurricane Milton has churned across Florida as it heads into the Atlantic Ocean, leaving behind a swath of destruction. Follow our live blog for the latest.
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