A senior advisor to President Donald Trump has warned that there is a “90% chance” of military action against Iran within the next few weeks. This comes as diplomatic efforts appear to be stalling and tensions in the region continue to rise.
“The boss is getting fed up,” the anonymous advisor told Axios. They added, “Some people around him warn him against going to war with Iran, but I think there is 90% chance we see kinetic action in the next few weeks.”
This warning came right after three-hour talks in Geneva, where Trump’s advisors Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Both sides initially said their discussions “made progress,” but the advisor’s comments suggest a very different reality behind the scenes.
The diplomatic window may be closing fast, with red lines still uncrossed
Vice President JD Vance said the negotiations “went well” in some ways, but added, “in other ways it was very clear that the president has set some red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to actually acknowledge and work through.” He also cautioned that diplomacy might soon have “reached its natural end.” Meanwhile, lawmakers from both parties are moving to limit Trump’s use of presidential powers, a sign of growing tensions between the White House and Congress.
Adding weight to the warning is a significant military buildup already underway in the region. Two aircraft carriers, dozens of warships, and hundreds of fighter jets have been positioned across the Middle East. More than 150 cargo flights have also delivered weapons systems and ammunition to the area.
The world is on the brink of a new major war: The US is much closer to a conflict with Iran than you think—this could happen very soon if the nuclear negotiations fail, Axios reports.
— Jürgen Nauditt
The Trump administration has drastically increased its military presence in the region—it… pic.twitter.com/1GyVBER0wj(@jurgen_nauditt) February 18, 2026
This is a large-scale logistical operation, not a routine show of force, and it signals that preparations for possible action are well advanced. If a strike on Iran does take place, sources familiar with planning discussions say it would likely be a sustained, joint effort between the US and Israel.
Targets would reportedly include not only nuclear facilities but also key regime assets, pointing to a strategy that goes beyond just halting nuclear development. In a separate legal development, a Trump-appointed judge recently shut down a Texas Antifa trial after a lawyer wore an MLK Jr. shirt in court. The combination of stalled diplomacy, direct warnings from senior advisors, and an undeniable military buildup paints a picture of a situation moving quickly toward a critical point.
