If you were doubting that Nigel Farage had a serious chance of heading a hard-right British government in 2029, the people of Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse just poured a bucket of particularly icy water over your head. Though Labour won the Scottish parliamentary byelection, defying predictions it would be beaten into third place, Reform UK chalked up more than a quarter of the vote – trailing the victors by an unsubstantial 1,500 voters.
This tells a devastating story. Nigel Farage’s outfit seriously outperformed the level of support indicated by Scottish polling: the last four surveys had Reform on between 12% and 19%, yet it secured 26% of the vote after standing here for the first time. This suggests it is mobilising previous non-voters whom pollsters are not picking up. The latest UK-wide YouGov poll, which asked people how they would vote if there were a general election tomorrow, put Reform in first place, eight points ahead of Labour. Imagine if that polling in fact underestimates their reach.
