“It became necessary to destroy the town to save it.” The iconic words of journalist Peter Arnett, quoting an unnamed US military major, describing the 1968 Battle of Bến Tre during the the Vietnam War.
The accuracy of the quote is now debated – check out this 2018 Bloomberg report into its origins. But it does nicely describe attitudes towards the Northern Ireland Protocol today. Must we now destroy it to save it?
The basis for peace in Northern Ireland is power-sharing. That is why, for instance, Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs) must designate themselves as either nationalist (Sinn Fein, SDLP), unionist (DUP, UUP, TUV) or ‘other’ (Alliance, Greens, People Before Profit).
It is also why, despite the fact that more than half of MLAs support the Protocol, the absence of unionist support matters. And why, without DUP agreement, a new Executive cannot be formed.
Everyone has their own ideas for how to solve the Northern Ireland Protocol. The answer most satisfying to short-term egos is the classic ‘I wouldn’t have started from here’. Do not forget, Boris Johnson sold the Protocol as a great deal for the UK, won an 80-seat majority off the back of it and now says it now needs reform.
Yet the fundamentals remain unchanged. As Britain has left the EU’s single market and customs union, there needs to be a hard border somewhere. Everyone agrees there cannot be customs checks or infrastructure along the Irish border, so it must fall on goods travelling between GB and NI.
As ever, there is a narrow landing zone. Compromise has already seen changes on the movement of medicines. More is possible though goodwill and trust are in short supply. Perhaps the best hope is that the DUP may eventually become desperate enough to return to the Executive, given that a new election must be called if a devolved government is not formed within 24 weeks. But that is perhaps overly optimistic.
The downside risk of miscalculation is massive. Further unilateral moves by the UK government – grace periods have already been made effectively permanent – could precipitate a trade war with the EU. These can get quite political and granular: think tariffs placed on goods produced in Tory-held Red Wall marginals.
In the midst of a cost of living crisis, and within sight of an expected 2024 general election, it would be politically calamitous. But perhaps by that point, the thinking will be that the Tories must destroy the economy in order to save it.
Elsewhere in the paper, rejoice! The Northern Line is back up and running on the Bank branch. Let’s never speak of its absence again. But what’s actually different about it?
In the comment pages, as students across the country prepare for their exams, Rob Rinder has some advice for his younger GCS-Me: Don’t worry about results, but lose the centre parting. And after dancing the foxtrot with her, Rob also has a new (and somewhat left-field) favourite royal.
Meanwhile, journalist Louise Perry says cannabis ruins lives and legalising it won’t help. In case you missed it, we ran the opposing view last week.
And finally, I have to admit Graham Norton having his own brand of white wine had passed me by. Aidy’s drinks cabinet is back with seven perfect wines for a date night.
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