Democratic strategists are urging a “don’t panic” response to a series of opinion polls that reveal deep worries over Joe Biden’s age and his ability to beat Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election.
A CNN survey conducted by SSRS caused shockwaves this week when it put Biden’s approval rating at just 39% and found two in three Democrats say the party should nominate someone else next year. In a hypothetical contest, registered voters were split between Trump (47%) and Biden (46%).
The findings echoed a Wall Street Journal poll that found 73% of voters say Biden, 80, is “too old to run for president” but just 47% of voters say the same about Trump, who is 77 and the current frontrunner for the Republican nomination. It put the two candidates neck and neck in the race for the White House, as does a polling average compiled by RealClearPolitics.
This stands in contrast to the last electoral cycle when, in 2019, polls showed Biden enjoying a seven to 10 percentage point lead over Trump. He eventually won the national popular vote by 4.4 percentage points.
Even if Biden takes the popular vote again next year, the all-important electoral college may be decided by wafer-thin margins in a handful of states. Third-party candidates, such as the leftwing academic Cornel West or No Labels – a big money group actively working to secure a place on the presidential ballot in at least 20 states – could hurt Biden more than Trump and tip the balance.
Such a prospect alarms activists who describe how Trump’s four-year presidency assailed the rights of women, people of colour and immigrants, culminating in an attempted coup, and dread a return to the White House that could prove even more authoritarian and aggressive.
It also rattles Democrats forced to ask why Biden, with a strong economy and series of major legislative accomplishments under his belt, is failing to pull clear of a predecessor who is twice impeached and charged with 91 criminal counts in Washington, New York, Florida and Georgia.
Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center thinktank in Washington, said: “Look, Joe Biden should not be their nominee. Joe Biden is unpopular. Joe Biden is too old. That’s no longer a Republican talking point; that’s the sentiment of half of the Democratic party and a supermajority of independents, and rational Democrats know that. But the problem is, how do you get rid of the guy?
“Nobody has the stomach and is willing to take the risk of taking him on in the primary process because failure weakens the Democratic party and kills your career. So you look around and you say, yeah, there’s huge risks, sane Democrats see them and they’re stuck.”
Biden’s age continues to be an obsession, with every stumble or gaffe viewed through that lens, even though aides testify to his energy and he is currently embarked on another overseas trip. Republicans are shaping a campaign message that Biden is unlikely to complete a second term, meaning that Vice-President Kamala Harris would take over.
Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, said: “Biden has to stay healthy. You can’t pretend not to be 80 or 81 or 82, which he’s going to be nearly at the time of the election. You have to be what you are but you can minimise the effects of it and they’ve done a terrible job on that.
“I know they can’t change him fundamentally but there is no excuse for having him shuffle in front of the cameras almost every day. He does shuffle and I’m sympathetic – I’m in my 70s – but there are ways to avoid that. I just don’t understand why, unless he’s insisting – he’s very sensitive about this.”
The latest round of polls have provoked a sharp response by senior Democratic advisers. They argue the party’s strength was underestimated in last year’s midterm elections when a so-called “red wave” failed to materialise for Republicans. They also point to the potency of abortion rights and successes in recent elections and ballot measures in Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin and other states.
Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist who bucked conventional wisdom on the 2022 midterms and was vindicated by a weaker Republican showing, said: “The reason I’m fine with where everything is and not worried is that the Republican base is very engaged right now. There’s a massive primary going on, ads are being run, the candidates are all over Fox News, Trump is threatened with imprisonment.
“If you’re a Republican voter, the election is happening. The Republicans have what I call asymmetrical engagement. They’re engaged, they are being talked to, there’s things going on. Our voters aren’t. There’s a lot of evidence that the Democratic coalition just isn’t very engaged and they’re having a summer. There’s no reason for them to be thinking about 2024.”
Rosenberg added: “I don’t think anyone’s panicking our side. There’s an awareness that we’ve got work to do. We should win next year if we do the work.”
But longtime Trump critics warn that Democrats are underestimating the dangers. Rick Wilson, a co-founder of the Lincoln Project and former Republican consultant, said: “I wish they would panic. The greatest danger here is complacency and a sense of misplaced optimism that some externality is going to take Trump out.”
Democrats need to unify strongly behind Biden and close the gap between perception of the economy and the reality, Wilson added. “Telling the economic good news story is their main and only job, and they need to be on that 24 hours a day.
“They have not yet fully internalised how important that is because, while they’re not going to persuade Maga voters, they could persuade moderate Republicans and soft independents. Every time you get a positive economic message, it’s buying a little more safety and security for the guy.”
