Having shows in Sydney is understandable. Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide, too. But Paul McCartney choosing Newcastle and the Gold Coast instead of Canberra looms as a venue wake-up call.
McCartney's upcoming Australian tour has exposed the long-running Canberra stadium and arena debacle as ACT Chief Minister Andrew Barr contemplates options for the future.
Canberra has dropped off the major touring artist location rotation and there are growing fears nothing will change until Barr pulls the funding trigger for a new stadium or indoor arena in the city.
McCartney isn't the first big touring artist to skip Canberra. But while the Taylor Swift, Ed Sheeran and Coldplay will never come because they need venues for 60,000 or more, Beatles legend McCartney was actually attainable.
It's understood the company organising McCartney's "Got Back" tour did raise Canberra as a potential stop on the six-show trip in October and November.
The bad news is, like the many more artists promoting similar-sized shows, Canberra falls down in too many departments. The 46-year-old stadium. The uncovered seating plan. The roof. The empty big-show resume.
Because while Canberra has been relatively dormant on the live-music, Newcastle has a proven record. Elton John sold out two shows, and Pink is returning next year.
In the end, venue issues, the weather and recent history led to McCartney's team to opt for Newcastle - a smaller city than Canberra but one that boasts a larger and more recently upgraded stadium - and the Gold Coast as the additional shows alongside four state capitals.
Canberra is considered part of the tier-two market, which alone is fine. But because of Canberra's 14-year stadium saga, a current indoor limit of 2000-3000 people and uncertain plans, many like McCartney will make the same decision for the foreseeable future.
The AIS Arena closure in 2020 has exacerbated the issue. It's hoped Canberra's biggest indoor venue - capable of hosting 5000 people for some events - will reopen by mid next year.
ACT government sources say they are keen to lure big acts to the city, and big acts consider coming until they get into the logistics. The existing stadium is capable of being transformed into a concert venue for 28,000 fans and it has been successfully used before.
Elton John played at Canberra Stadium a decade ago and Keith Urban was the last non-sporting event at the venue when fans filled the stands in 2019.
Matchbox 20 and the Goo Goo Dolls will end a five-year hiatus when they play in front of what is expected to be a sell-out crowd in Canberra in February.
That event is being viewed as a potential circuit breaker for Canberra's music scene. An impressive crowd and a successful summer night will send a message to tour promoters that the capital and the surrounding region of two million people have an appetite for concerts.
It won't entice the Taylor Swifts or Coldplays of the world to stop off in Canberra. But those like McCartney - who will play at the 33,000 capacity venue in Newcastle, the 11,300 arena in Adelaide and the 27,500 capacity Gold Coast oval - are right in the sweet spot.
The Matchbox 20 layout has been set up for 12,000 and almost all tickets have been sold. It is hoped that will help convince promoters and artists that Canberra is a viable stop.
But while the ACT government's stadium saga drags on (we're now in the 14th year of location thought bubbles and dreams), it will linger as a potential issue.
It's understood the stadium layout at Bruce, and lack of covered seating was considered a turnoff by McCartney's team. Newcastle's stadium also has minimal covered seating, but the average October temperature minimum up there is 12 degrees compared to Canberra's 7 degrees.
So for Canberra to be in the market, the city needs an indoor arena of between 8000-10,000 capacity, or a stadium with a roof for 25,000.
Barr is pitching an indoor multi-purpose venue in the city, which would primarily be for concerts, stage shows and the occasional sporting fixture. It would have a capacity of at least 7500.
While the Civic arena has been badged as a new idea, Barr first floated the proposal in 2017.
Under Barr's plan, the stadium will remain at Bruce with a new capacity of 30,000. The plan is to either commit to a staged rebuild of the existing venue, or a brand new venue on the eastern side of Canberra Stadium. Even then, it won't have a fully enclosed roof.
Independent federal Senator David Pocock is pitching for something different. He unveiled his "vision for Canberra" this week, which includes a roofed stadium for 25,000 fans in the heart of the city. Pocock project and new drawings were published despite Barr ruling out the Civic stadium plan, which he came up with a decade ago, because he said it would be too expensive and too complicated.
Either way, the stalemate is having a flow-on impact to Canberra's reputation as a major events hub.
The government has significantly scaled back on its marquee sports fixtures budget, skipping the Women's World Cup this year because it said the cost of being involved in the historic tournament was too high.
Canberra's involvement in the men's rugby union World Cup in 2027 is delicately placed as negotiations continue about which cities will host games.
And every time the stadium issue is raised, tour promoters and artists baulk at the idea of playing at a near 50-year-old venue, which, despite its flaws, still has an immaculate playing surface and provides a good atmosphere when the stands are full.
It's impossible to compete with the Gold Coast beaches or the 100,000-capacity option in Melbourne. But Newcastle? Yes we can ... if the stadium plan gets its act together.
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