Last season, I was so confident Arsenal would fail to make the top four that I vowed to buy a shirt with ‘Arteta 8’ on the back if they did and plaster pictures of me wearing it all over social media.
To be fair, it’s not a chance I’m willing to take this time out after seeing the start they have made. But just as I’m happy to concede they could well qualify for the Champions League next May, I’m also willing to stick my neck on the line right now and tell all those Gooners who think they will be challenging for the title after five wins from five that they simply have no chance.
The smart money is on Manchester City to win the Premier League by anything between nine and 15 points. And history tells me that Arsenal won’t be anywhere near them at the pointy end of the season.
Just look at the gap they have to close – 24 points last season – and reflect on the previous seven or eight years.
There is nothing to suggest they can now mount a serious challenge, even after starting brightly.
What baffles me is that supporters and pundits alike seem to regularly suffer from collective amnesia when it comes to remembering how seasons pan out. It’s not a case of teams playing 38 games on beautiful sunny days in front of a really enthusiastic crowd.
There’s cold weather to deal with, wet weather, international breaks, injuries, loss of form and a whole plethora of off-field issues, all of which will come along and test Arsenal.
They are one of the best teams on the planet at playing when there’s no pressure, no stress, no hassle, when the pitches are beautiful and the days long and sunny. You can then put them up there with City, Liverpool, Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich.
But every league campaign is a journey and the hardest part of it, as I’ve said many times before, is the run-in.
That’s when the pressure really starts to build and it’s where Arsenal have been found wanting in recent campaigns.
Their fans will say Gabriel Jesus and Oleks Zinchenko have been brought in to help the mentality in the dressing room at that point.
And I love the way Jesus, in particular, has started the season. But, as Mikel Arteta said a couple of weeks ago, the lad made just 18 Premier League starts in two seasons prior to joining the Gunners, so it’s a fair question for any of us to ask ‘Can he keep up this form for an entire campaign?’
We don’t know yet how he will respond after the World Cup, or how will he play in January and February when it’s cold and wet and he’s still expected to be the main man.
When I joined Leicester from Aston Villa, I was playing regularly again, scoring goals and the adrenaline was pumping – I loved it. Then I suffered a broken leg, possibly caused by a slight weakness in an ankle, and I still wonder if it would have happened if I’d been playing week-in, week-out before I made the move.
Those of us who know what it takes to play 38 games in a Premier League season know the physical and mental demands that come with it, and Jesus still has to learn all about that.
It’s not as if the team has faced a really tough test yet – at least three of their five games have been against teams who could well end up in a relegation scrap.
So while I’ve enjoyed watching Arsenal’s performances, their fans need to enjoy the start for what it is. And if your club does get to third or fourth, I will say, “Well done, you were right to give Arteta the time and money to do what he has done”.
Although qualification for the Champions League still isn’t winning the title, is it?
