Brave faces hurt the most. None more so than the one worn by a PM caving into pressure from his Cabinet and party, while still vowing to stay until the autumn.
But when the Conservative Party hits the emergency button, as it did by ousting a leader who had delivered a major election victory less than three years ago, the shift is immediate. Nothing fades as fast as power extinguished. No matter how mighty the leader, the deep-state machinery of its backbench 1922 committee makes the running.
Graham Brady, as chairman of the Tories’ “Supreme Soviet”, which directs leadership races, was hardly going to miss his moment. So under his stewardship yesterday, the date for a new leader was set for September 5.
Whatever comes of the knock-out race which follows (to my mind, it looks like Rishi Sunak versus Liz Truss, barring pratfalls or the emergence of something awful), it sends a very clear message to the Prime Minister that his afterlife starts as soon as his summer break is over.
In practical terms, this puts the squeeze on Boris and Carrie Johnson — putting it bluntly — to get out of Downing Street on dignified terms. Or they will have to face the next incumbent’s John Lewis furniture van rolling up as the Lulu Lytle pricey faff ships out.
It means both their teams need to stop briefing about how unfair it all is, or blaming the eternal Beelzebub, Dominic Cummings, for every embarrassing titbit. It means they have to do what powerful people most hate to do and move on — letting Rishi, Liz or whoever grabs the mantle do their thing.
In some ways Johnson is well versed in the ability to pivot. That gives him some advantage if he can drop the tone of bitterness which infested his leaving speech.
Appearing in a new Radio 4 series on my time as a contemporary in Johnson’s Oxford years, three of us talked about his ability to channel “trad” public school tribalism. Despite his High Tory caricature, Johnson then rose on the support of the Oxford Union’s Lib Dems and backing from Simon Stevens, a future head of the NHS.
He has always been as protean as the next job demanded. It was an early demonstration of Johnson’s ability to appeal beyond his base to secure his aims. And that is still considered an asset, even now.
Ultimately, he has made a mess of government. It was by far his weakest suit. His executive functioning was far less brilliant than his performative or campaigning talent — and that was the reason the project ultimately failed in office, however great his electoral victories.
Yet the reason that he might just enjoy Valhalla, when the bruises of defeat fade, is that I am pretty sure he knows this too. Also, the examples of other past leaders are instructional, if he has the sense to heed Tony Blair. Yes, by all means keep on chatting about your brand of politics but be careful with your alliances and earnings.
Next rule — do not do bitter. Gordon Brown has done many worthwhile things since he was in office. But he has not entirely lost the tendency to blame others for his own shortcomings, which means that in the market for former leaders, he trades at less than his optimal impact. “Poor Gordon” is not the brand to emulate.
Theresa May is in similar territory, defined by “revenge eaten cold”. Yet outside Remainer hagiography, she barely cuts through to more popular affection. There never was much “Mayology” there in the first place. John Major, an affable but mediocre PM, was similarly elevated on the wings of opposition to Brexit.
Now Johnson has a chance to reinvent the role of what Russians pithily call “previous people”. For all the failings which saw him off, a lot of people are still more pleased to see him than they are to meet any other politician. That is the challenge for his heirs to deal with.
But the worst look of all, when your own side has wielded the big hook on stage, is that of the star who is reluctant to go and keeps carping about it. Better to shoo away the last of the vassals trying to delay the inevitable, fighting old internal battles about treachery, leaks and turf wars.
Revenge is not a very tasty dish in politics. When it comes, it is best eaten with a large dose of future success.
