The Miami Dolphins have done well through the first 14 weeks of the season, as they’ve put together a 9-4 record that has them in second place in the AFC heading into their matchup with the New York Jets on Sunday afternoon.
With only four games left in the regular season, the New York Times has a playoff simulator that gives the odds of teams making the postseason, as well as if they’ll have a bye week, host a wild-card game or be the team hosted on wild-card weekend.
Based on 60, 921 simulations, the Dolphins have a 97% chance of making the postseason. With that, they have a 14% chance of being the top seed in the AFC and securing a first-round bye week. They have a 88% chance of playing on wild-card weekend (62% as the host and 22% as the visitor).
A win over the Jets gives Miami a 17% chance of being the first seed, but obviously, other results could make their odds better or worse.
The Dolphins took a tough loss to the Tennessee Titans last week that dropped their first-place odds from 37%, so they have a lot to prove, especially with two games against two teams with the best record in the league (the Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys) still on the schedule.
