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Barchart
Barchart
Rich Asplund

Dollar Weakness and Forecasts for Limited Rain in Brazil Push Coffee Prices Higher

July arabica coffee (KCN25) today is up +11.25 (+2.92%), and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK25) is up +59 (+1.11%).

Coffee prices today extended this week's rally, with arabica climbing to a 4-week high and robusta posting a 1-week high.  Today's dollar weakness (DXY00) is supportive of most commodity prices, including coffee.  Also, forecasts for limited rainfall in Brazil that may reduce yields of Brazil's coffee crop are bullish for prices after Somar Meteorologia said today that the chances for rain in Brazil's coffee-growing regions look limited into next week.Arabica coffee also has carryover support from Tuesday when Rabobank predicted Brazil's 2025/26 arabica coffee crop would fall -13.6% y/y to 38.1 million bags, citing dry weather in key arabica-growing areas that significantly reduced flowering of coffee trees.  However, further gains in robusta coffee may be limited after Rabobank predicted Brazil's 2025/26 robusta coffee crop would climb +7.3% y/y to a record 24.7 million bags.

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