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Barchart
Rich Asplund

Dollar Weakness and El Nino Spark Fund Buying in Cocoa Futures

Ice ICCO El Nino Ivory Coast London

July ICE NY cocoa (CCN23) on Thursday closed up +46 (+1.48%), and July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAK23) closed up +23 (+0.96%).

Cocoa prices Thursday extended this week's rally to 1-month nearest-futures highs.  Thursday's decline in the dollar index (DXY00) to a 2-week low was bullish for most commodity prices, including cocoa.  Fund buying also pushed cocoa prices higher on concern that an El Nino weather event could undercut global cocoa production.  Cocoa prices rallied to 12-year highs in 2016 after an El Nino weather event in 2015/16 caused a drought that hampered global cocoa production.  On Thursday,  the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said that sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean had risen 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal, and wind patterns have changed to the point where El Nino criteria have been met.  

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