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Barchart
Rich Asplund

Dollar Rises on Speculation About Less Aggressive Fed Rate Cuts

ECB Interest Rates United States Japan US Federal Reserve

The dollar index (DXY00) Monday rose by +0.37%.  Monday’s stronger-than-expected US economic news was bullish for the dollar.  The dollar also rose on reduced speculation that the Fed will cut interest rates aggressively as swap markets are discounting the chances for a 50 bp rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting at 31%, down from 50% after the release of last Friday’s US payroll report.  Strength in stocks Monday reduced liquidity demand for the dollar.

Monday’s US economic news was supportive of the dollar.  July wholesale trade sales rose +1.1% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and the largest increase in 5 months.  Also, July consumer credit rose +$25.452 billion, stronger than expectations of +$10.4 billion and the most in 1-1/2 years.

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