The dollar index (DXY00) on Wednesday rallied by +1.04% and posted a 4-3/4 month high. The dollar raced higher Wednesday after the US March CPI report came in stronger than expected, boosting T-note yields and dampening the outlook for Fed rate cuts. Wednesday’s slump in stocks also boosted some liquidity demand for the dollar. In addition, war jitters between Iran and Israel boosted safe-haven demand for the dollar after US intelligence said a missile or drone strike by Iran or its proxies against Israeli assets is imminent. Fed swap markets have now priced 50 bp of rate cuts for 2024, less than the 75 bp of rate cuts that were priced last week.
US Mar CPI rose +0.4% m/m and +3.5% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.4% y/y. Also, Mar CPI ex-food and energy rose +0.4% m/m and +3.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.7% y/y.
