The dollar index (DXY00) fell from a 1.25-month high today and is down by -0.21%. The dollar gave up overnight gains today and turned lower after crude oil prices retreated following reports that the US proposed a temporary waiver of sanctions on Iran’s oil. Lower crude prices lower inflation expectations and are dovish for Fed policy and bearish for the dollar. Also, stronger stock prices today reduced liquidity demand for the dollar. The dollar recovered from its worst level today after the May NAHB housing market index unexpectedly strengthened.
The dollar initially moved higher today on increased safe-haven demand after President Trump said the “clock is ticking” on Iran and it “better get moving FAST on a peace deal, or there won’t be anything left of them.” Also, ramped-up geopolitical tensions boosted safe-haven demand for the dollar after Reuters reported that Pakistan has deployed 8,000 troops, a squadron of fighter jets, and an air defense system to Saudi Arabia as part of a mutual defense pact, a deployment described as a “substantial, combat-capable force” to support Saudi Arabia if it comes under further attack.
