The dollar index (DXY00) today is down by -0.52% at a 2-week low. The dollar came under pressure today on weaker-than-expected US labor market news that showed a smaller-than-expected increase in the Jun ADP employment and a jump in weekly continuing unemployment claims to a 2-1/2 year high, a dovish factor for Fed policy. Also, a widening of the US trade deficit in May to a 19-month high is bearish for the dollar. Losses in the dollar accelerated after the Jun ISM services index contracted by the most in 4 years.
The US Jun ADP employment change rose +150,000, weaker than expectations of +165,000.
US weekly initial unemployment claims rose +4,000 to 238,000, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 235,000. Weekly continuing claims rose +26,000 to a 2-1/2 year high of 1.858 million, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 1.840 million.
The US May trade deficit widened to a 19-month high of -$75.1 billion from -$74.5 billion in April.
US May factory orders unexpectedly fell -0.5% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and the biggest decline in 4 months.
The US Jun ISM services index fell -5.0 to 48.8, weaker than expectations of 52.7 and the steepest pace of contraction in 4 years.
The markets are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 9% for the July 30-31 FOMC meeting
and 69% for the following meeting on Sep 17-18.
EUR/USD (^EURUSD) today is up by +0.57% at a 3-week high. Weakness in the dollar today is supportive of the euro. Also, an upward revision to the Eurozone Jun composite PMI was positive for EUR/USD. Gains in the euro accelerated today after Reuters reported that some ECB policymakers are urging a review of the monetary stimulus policies employed by the ECB out of concerns they may have done more harm than good. On the negative side, the Eurozone May PPI declined more than expected, a dovish factor for ECB policy.
The Eurozone Jun S&P composite PMI was revised upward by +0.1 to 50.9 from the previously reported 50.8.
Eurozone May PPI fell -0.2% m/m and -4.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.1% m/m and -4.1% y/y.
Swaps are discounting the chances of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at 7% for the July 18 meeting and 68% for the September 12 meeting.
USD/JPY (^USDJPY) today is down by -0.22%. The yen today recovered from a new 37-year low against the dollar and is moderately higher. Weaker-than-expected US economic news today knocked T-note yields lower and sparked short covering in the yen. Also, market participants are concerned that Japanese authorities could intervene in the forex market at any time to support the yen, especially when the US markets are closed on Thursday for the Independence Day holiday, as the thin holiday conditions can produce exaggerated moves in markets. The yen today initially moved lower as signs of weakness in Japan’s economy may prompt the BOJ from tightening monetary policy after the Japan Jun Jibun Bank services PMI was revised downward to a 2-1/4 year low.
The Japan Jun Jibun Bank services PMI was revised downward by -0.4 to 49.4 from the previously reported 49.8, the steepest pace of contraction in 2-1/4 years.
Swaps are pricing in the chances for a +10 bp rate increase by the BOJ at 49% for the July 31 meeting and 53% for the September 20 meeting.
August gold (GCQ4) today is up +40.10 (+1.72%), and September silver (SIU24) is up +1.197 (+4.05%). Precious metals today are rallying, with gold and silver posting 1-1/2 week highs. Today’s slump in the dollar index to a 2-week low supports metals prices. Also, today’s weaker-than-expected US economic news on the Jun ADP employment change, May factory orders, and the Jun ISM services index are dovish for Fed policy and bullish for precious metals. In addition, ongoing Middle East tensions are boosting the safe-haven demand for precious metals. Finally, political uncertainty in France supports safe-haven demand for precious metals ahead of the second round of France’s parliamentary elections this Sunday.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
