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Barchart
Rich Asplund

Dollar Edges Higher as Stocks Fall and Crude Oil Rallies

Oil crude oil ECB Isabel Schnabel Peter Kazimir Inflation ECB Executive Board ECB Governing Council US Federal Reserve Gold

The dollar index (DXY00) rallied to a 1.5-week high on Monday and finished up by +0.28%. The dollar moved higher on Monday as stocks slumped, which boosted liquidity demand for the dollar. Also, Monday’s rally in WTI crude oil to a 3.75-month high raised inflation expectations, which could potentially persuade the Fed to tighten monetary policy. In addition, expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 bp at the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting support the dollar. The dollar fell from its best level on Monday after T-note yields gave up an early advance and turned lower.

Markets are pricing in a 92% chance of a +25 bp Fed rate hike at the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting.

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