Last month, the Los Angeles Dodgers made significant moves to strengthen their starting rotation for the upcoming season. After signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto for an impressive $325 million and trading for Tyler Glasnow, they added another valuable asset in James Paxton. However, as is often the case, there was a significant caveat to the deal—a pending physical examination.
James Paxton, a seasoned 35-year-old pitcher entering his 11th major league season, missed the entirety of 2022 due to Tommy John surgery. In 2023, he played with the Boston Red Sox, finishing with a 7-5 record and a 4.50 ERA. While these numbers are relatively average, Paxton proved himself to be a reliable starter by making 19 appearances that year.
Unfortunately for the Dodgers, an unspecified health concern was discovered during Paxton's physical examination. This discovery prompted a renegotiation of his contract, resulting in a reduction of the guaranteed amount from $11 million to $7 million. Although the $3 million signing bonus remained intact, the guaranteed salary dropped from $8 million to $4 million.
Moreover, the bonus structure was altered as well. Originally, Paxton would have received $1 million if he made it to the opening day roster, and an additional $500,000 if he joined the roster by April 15th. Under the revised contract, Paxton would earn $2 million if he makes the opening day roster in either Seoul, South Korea on March 20th or the domestic opener on March 28th. If not, he would receive $1 million if he joined the roster by April 15th.
In terms of starts, the original deal included bonuses of $250,000 each for his 16th and 18th starts, along with an additional $500,000 if he reached 20 starts. In the revised contract, these bonuses were adjusted to $600,000 each for his 6th, 8th, 10th, 12th, and 16th starts, with an additional $1 million for each of his 18th and 20th starts.
Under the original terms, Paxton could have earned up to $13 million. However, with the revised agreement, if he remains healthy and makes the opening day roster while reaching the 20-start mark, he now has the potential to earn a total of $14 million. It was in the Dodgers' best interest to renegotiate the deal, as it reduced their upfront risk by $4 million.
By betting on himself with this one-year deal, Paxton has the opportunity to prove his capabilities on the mound once again. Meanwhile, the Dodgers, known for their strategic allocation of resources, have managed to protect themselves and minimize risk, exemplifying why they are considered the model franchise in baseball.
In the end, the outcome of this renegotiation will depend on Paxton's health and performance. With a history of starting at least 20 games per season from 2016 to 2019 and coming close in 2023, Paxton has shown his durability. As the Dodgers seek success in the upcoming season, they will be relying on Paxton to contribute as a reliable number three or four starter.
While the outcome of this deal remains uncertain, it serves as a reminder of the intricacies involved in player contracts and the importance of thorough medical evaluations. Both parties will be eagerly awaiting Paxton's performance on the field, and only time will tell if this revised agreement benefits both the player and the team.
