WITH the continuing dominance of the SNP in the politics of Scotland, it may seem a bit far-fetched to even contemplate the party’s fragmentation and disintegration if a second independence referendum goes ahead and is won.
But for decades this very thought has been a constant point of discussion for some among the left in the SNP as well as many left-wing supporters of independence outside of the SNP.
The premise to this discussion is two-fold. First, the SNP is a broad coalition of different political tendencies – the left, centre and right – that is only held together by the aim of seeking independence. Second, and following from this, the SNP will fragment into parties of these different political tendencies after its historic mission of gaining independence has been achieved.
Let’s examine the veracity of this. While the SNP is undoubtedly a party with a broad range of political perspectives within it, not all are equal in their influence or stature.
The heyday of the left has long since passed. You would have to go back to the ill-starred 79 Group to find something approximating to an influential left-wing current.
As its name suggests, it existed more than 40 years ago and did not last for very long, with most of its key members, including Alex Salmond, expelled for a short time.
Subsequent attempts to revive a radical left, whether around publications such as Radical Scotland or the groups SNP Socialists and the Common Weal, have come to very little.
Much of the left within the SNP departed in 2021 to join Alba. If some of Alba’s policies can be seen as left-wing, we know by now that it did not make a breakthrough in the 2021 Scottish Parliament or 2022 local government elections.
Returning to the SNP would seem unlikely. Former members would be unwilling to go back to what they left and continuing, present members would not be welcoming hosts. This leaves the left argument a little threadbare.
So, the left in the SNP is now shrunken and would not fancy its chances outside of the party even if it were organised enough to collectively come to this conclusion. Alba will no doubt continue, so it will remain as something of a warning of electoral oblivion to many.
Added to this – and even with the continuation of the combination of proportional representation of Holyrood and local government elections – the independence-supporting left continues to shrink.
The Scottish Socialist Party and Scottish Trade Union and Socialist Coalition each won just 1000 first preference votes in the 2022 council elections. Tommy Sheridan’s Solidarity party joined Action for Independence and when it disbanded to join Alba, Solidarity was also wound up.
Quite what would happen to the as ever ultra-Unionist Scottish Labour is difficult to fathom. But there is one certainty – bad blood between Scottish Labour and the SNP as well as the left in both would not make for much of a meeting of minds.
All this means there are few ready allies for the SNP left to join up with outside of the SNP.
Let’s now turn, in relative terms, to the centre of the SNP. Politically, they form the leadership of the current SNP. It is this leadership that has long claimed the SNP are a social democratic party.
There is no doubt that the SNP have moved a long way from the time when they could accurately be described as “Tartan Tories”, and that Sturgeon is to the left of previous leader Alex Salmond.
After 2014, she often called herself a social democrat. But this does not make the SNP social democratic. The essence of social democracy is a political party that is prepared – in both words and deeds – to use the state to intervene in the economy to ameliorate the outcomes of free-market capitalism – and to do so in order to make them fairer for most citizens.
The outcome is to make society more “sociable” in terms of economic justice and social equality.
The evidence to show that any political party – when in office – is social democratic comprises statutory intervention leading to the regulation of the likes of profits, wages and prices; expanding public ownership; progressive taxation (where those with more pay more); measures to achieve wealth redistribution; effective support for unions to level the playing field with employers; and so on.
Notwithstanding the limitations of devolution, the record of the SNP under Nicola Sturgeon does not meet these criteria. That is why, as far back as 2015, I characterised the SNP as “neoliberalism with a heart” in the Scottish Left Review, following Jim and Margaret Cuthbert who originally coined the phrase in 2009 with regard to the SNP.
The term has been used since by fellow academics Iain Ferguson and Gerry Mooney in a book on independence published in 2021.
The key reasons why there has been no revolt against this “emperor with no clothes” is that opposition to the leadership within the SNP is effectively proscribed, as the recent SNP conference in Aberdeen showed, and consistently being in office is a big attraction to staying within the SNP.
Even with the ending of Westminster’s powers under reserved matters, there is no reason to believe that this situation would change after independence where it is something of a racing certainty that the SNP would be the party in office as the Scottish Government.
Indeed, the SNP’s recent independence prospectus papers –Independence in the Modern World. Wealthier, Happier, Fairer: Why not Scotland? and A Stronger Economy with Independence – confirm this. And the pull of being in an expanded Scottish Government with all the trappings of the Scottish state would arguably be even greater for many aspiring apparatchiks to stay on side.
Where does this leave the right wing of the SNP? Probably, in the same boat as before. It has no stars or resources to ensure it could exist outside the SNP unless it was able to link up with the Scottish Tories if they became an independent Scottish party that accepted independence. Despite a similarity in much of their politics, that might still be a step too far for some right-wing SNPers.
All this suggests it is South Africa with the ANC – and not Ireland – which provides the best model of what to expect. Despite some debacles, defections and difficulties, the ANC has still monopolised politics since apartheid’s fall in 1994. And, it looks set to continue to do so through patronage and continuing political loyalties to it.
Professor Gregor Gall is an affiliate research associate at the University of Glasgow and editor of A New Scotland: Building an Equal, Fair and Sustainable Society’ (Pluto Press, 2022, priced £14.99)
