First thing first. Kenny Pickett is not a good quarterback.
There’s time for that to change. Even though he’s 25 years old — a few months younger than fourth-year NFL veterans Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa — he’s only in his second season as a pro. He has only 17 starts, one full regular season, worth of experience under his belt. There are arrows yet to be added to his quiver.
And if his first year-plus as the starting quarterback of the Pittsburgh Steelers is any indication, he’ll launch those arrows over the head of a streaking wide receiver and somewhere onto the turf six yards beyond him.
Pickett has been roughly as underwhelming in 2023 as he was in 2022. He’s found the end zone more often, which is good, but he’s throwing interceptions at a slightly higher rate (2.3 percent to 2.5), which is bad. His intermediate throws have improved and his completion rate on short and deep balls has gotten worse. The only player with a higher bad throw rate than his 23.8 percent is fourth-round rookie Aidan O’Connell.
Despite this, the Steelers are 3-2. They’re undefeated in AFC North competition. They currently stand atop the division and, if the season ended today, would be hosting a Wild Card game (as the conference’s third seed!) at the stadium formerly known as Heinz Field.
The machinations behind this winning record are simple. Pittsburgh gets a dominant effort from a defense with a crushing pass rush and average contributions behind it. The offense runs into a wall over and over again for roughly three quarters. At some point there’s an explosive defensive play and Pickett launches a deep pass that goes 40-plus yards for a touchdown and the Steelers win a one-score game.
Seriously, that’s the script for all three wins so far this season.
- Week 2: 255 yards of total offense, 71-yard George Pickens touchdown, Alex Highsmith strip sack/TJ Watt 16-yard fumble return touchdown.
- Week 3: 333 yards of total offense, 72-yard Calvin Austin touchdown, Patrick Peterson interception and Levi Wallace pass breakup end Raiders’ second-half drives in Pittsburgh territory.
- Week 5: 289 yards of total offense, blocked punt safety, 41-yard Pickens touchdown, fourth quarter strip sack and end zone interception of Lamar Jackson.
This all seems very unsustainable, from the perpetual need for high-variance defensive playmaking to the 3-0 record in one-possession games. Pittsburgh’s -31 point differential paints their pythagorean record — what you’d typically expect from a team that scores X amount and gives up X amount — at 1.6 wins. The evidence points to the fact the Steelers’ plus-.500 record is smoke and mirrors.
Is there anything to suggest it isn’t?
The Steelers rank 29th in points for and 30th in yards gained this year, and the former is actually inflated by two defensive return touchdowns — 28.6 percent of the team’s touchdown output! — and a special teams safety. Advanced stats suggest this is no mirage; Pittsburgh is significantly subpar in both passing and rushing, leaving them with peers like the Cleveland Browns and New York Giants (who are … not good).
The run game is getting little utility thanks to a weak offensive line and unimaginative playcalling from coordinator Matt Canada. Pittsburgh’s 2.0 yards before contact per carry is fourth-worst in the NFL. A better tailback platoon may be able to overcome that, but Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are extremely average runners. Per the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Warren is averaging -0.1 rush yards over expected (RYOE) per carry — or what he’s gained vs. what the numbers suggest a typical running back would gain in the same situation — and Harris clocks in at 0.03.
This is a problem, particularly when Canada has opted to start his drives on the ground at least 50 percent of the time each game (with the exception of a pass-heavy attack vs. the 49ers that did not work whatsoever). The Steelers’ running backs only have a 44 percent success rate when running the ball, which leads to third-and-long situations, which leads to a 37 percent conversion rate — 24th in the NFL.
So, two more big strikes against sustainability. But what about Pickett? Can he handle pressure in the pocket? Can he throw his way to prosperity?
Let’s deal with that first question. Pickett’s pressure rate has risen from 21 percent to just under 30 percent this season, but his mobility out of the pocket has gotten worse. He’s scrambling significantly less (from 2.1 times per game to 0.8) and is less effective when he does take off. And sometimes he makes baffling decisions like running straight backwards, which, guy, please don’t.
This has helped lead to less time in the pocket, less time to throw, an increased sack rate and more yards lost per sack than his rookie year (6.7 vs. 7.6). Those numbers are trending in the wrong direction, and while some of the blame falls on his blocking Pickett’s diminished dual-threat capacity plays a role. So no, he doesn’t handle pressure all that well.
He’s also wildly inconsistent with his shots downfield. While he often makes the right call identifying his opportunities, his execution is lacking. You’re almost guaranteed one frustrating Pickett overthrow per game.
This second quarter miss from Week 5 is endemic to his struggles. Here he makes the right call on a streaking George Pickens, who is picked up by the interior defender after a quick double-move. That safety has inside leverage, so throwing the ball back toward the sideline would minimize the chance of him getting a hand on it. We know Pickens is good enough to track the ball through the air, and a minor adjustment to the outside is a reasonable one to make.
Instead, Pickett throws it toward the middle of the field and back toward the safety help. And overthrows Pickens by about four yards.
Pickett’s inability to throw deep leads opponents to crash toward the line of scrimmage, lining up where they can smother running plays while leaving a single safety deep — or occasionally none at all. These jam-the-line situations have contributed to an eight percent sack rate and weak run game, but they do create opportunities for the three or four good balls Pickett throws per game. Like this one that beat the Ravens in Week 5:
He is him.
📲: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/T87FSnfvVk pic.twitter.com/A5hX9eOSD2
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) October 8, 2023
Look at that; every dang Raven is lined up fewer than five yards from the line of scrimmage. No one even thinks of providing coverage over the top, even though Pickett had hit Pickens with a 21-yard deep strike to the opposite sideline two plays earlier — on tight coverage with a precise back-shoulder throw. Baltimore was shown proof that the second-year quarterback might be feeling it and decided it wasn’t worried and that single-coverage would win the day.
It’s disrespectful, but given the way Pickett was playing before that drive, it wasn’t entirely wrong. Instead, Pickett recognized the play, upped his protection pre-snap and made a huge throw. That’s important!
Kenny Pickett & George Pickens (41-yd TD)
Against an eight-man box with the deepest defender 4.5 yards off the line of scrimmage, Pickett and Pickens take advantage of the Ravens defense in Cover 0.
🔹 Time to Throw: 2.10 seconds
🔹 Air Distance: 40.2 yds
🔹 Sideline Distance:… pic.twitter.com/2EIlNh7yNY— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 8, 2023
This is, also, an unsustainable strategy. Fielding a quarterback whose bad throws lull defenses into a sense of false security and then exploiting the single-coverage opportunities that follow can only last so long. Pickens’ connection with his young QB has been a consistent theme in their two years together. It would be surprising not to see him earn a safety tail in the second half throughout the rest of the season.
That said, there are moments where Pickett is onto something. He can exploit sideline coverage with well placed back-shoulder throws — something Pickens has proven adept at coming back for even in traffic.
He’s willing to take shots downfield and shows up in big moments. His fourth quarter completion percentage over expected (CPOE) of 0.1, while not great, is signfiicantly higher than the -6.2 he posts over the first three quarters. Some star traits are there, but they’re buried beneath everything else that stinks.
This is the hope that may kill Steeler fans. Pickett can occasionally make throws that suggest he’s the guy. Most of the time he doesn’t really come close. Advanced stats paint him as the worst starting quarterback in the NFL, and this is a league with Mac Jones in it.
But the swarming defense that brings a seemingly inexhaustible supply of big plays provides cover for that, and this team is a division leader despite Pickett’s frustrating play. The Steelers can’t survive on one big passing play per game alone. But if their young quarterback can show even faint signs of growth, there’s enough talent elsewhere to sneak Mike Tomlin back into the playoffs.
