Just hours before the conclusion of the 2024 presidential election, both the polls and the options market seemingly have aligned to one consensus opinion: Vice President Kamala Harris may be headed toward a historic victory. While it’s impossible to declare such a contentious result with certainty, trading dynamics of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) lend themselves to that inference.
First, the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll showed that Harris leads former President Donald J. Trump in the Hawkeye State, 47% to 44%. What’s particularly shocking about this result is the broader implication. Iowa’s population is predominantly white and rural, meaning that Harris could outperform in Rust Belt states. It also suggests that the vice president may benefit from the shy Harris voter phenomenon.
