France eased Covid restrictions on Wednesday, opening up nightclubs and allowing stand-up concerts. Health minister Olivier Véran has said the vaccine pass could be relaxed by next month if the health situation continues to improve, but some epidemiologists question its flimsy scientific foundations.
A number of Covid rules were scrapped on Wednesday.
Nightclubs are allowed to open again, though masks must be worn on the dancefloor. Cafés and bars are no longer limited to table-service; you can stand up in concerts and eat food in cinemas, stadiums and on public transport and planes.
This follows several changes announced in recent days.
On Monday the health ministry instructed vaccination centres to let people using fake passes get a clean slate and begin a vaccination procedure.
On Saturday France lifted the requirement for fully vaccinated travellers to show a negative Covid test on arrival in the country.
From 28 February, masks will no longer be required in places where the vaccine pass applies such as indoor venues, restaurants and bars, ski lifts and tourist sites.
And primary school children won't have to wear masks in the playground and can mix with their peers when they head back to school after the holidays (21 February, 28 February or 7 March depending on the region).
End of mask wearing?
This latest easing of restrictions comes as France's fifth Covid wave continues to wane.
The number of positive cases has dropped by 44 percent since last week.
Health minister Olivier Veran said on Wednesday that if the Covid situation continued to improve, France could lift the requirement to wear masks in indoor spaces as early as mid March.
“If this dynamic continues, we will be able to get out of the current wave in a few weeks," he told Franceinfo. “15 days after 28 February […] we could begin to seriously consider the question of wearing masks indoors, for adults and children.”
No date has been set for lifting the vaccination pass, but Veran said it "could be reduced and kept in places that are very high risk, such as nightclubs – where it would be until late March, early April”.
The vaccine pass, necessary for accessing most public places, requires proof of full vaccination (three doses or two jabs plus proof of recent Covid recovery).
Only around half of the eligible population in France has had the booster.
On Tuesday, some four million people found their passes deactivated after new rules stipulated the booster shot had to be less than four months old for the pass to be valid.
Disco fever
While the reopening of nightclubs is a welcome boost for the industry and millions of young people starved of nightlife, there are concerns the wind of freedom could fuel the circulation of the virus once more.
Studies have shown that nightclubs are among the places where people are most likely to be infected.
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“Of course the concentration of people in a closed area can contribute to the spread of the virus, especially if the BA.2 is dispersed," said Philippe Amouyel, professor of public health at Lille University Hospital, referring to an even more contagious Omicron sub-variant.
“But most clients are young, already immune or with a low risk of developing a serious form of the virus," he told Le Parisien.
Amouyel, an epidemiologist, stressed the importance of rigorous checking of the vaccine pass on entry to clubs.
"If everyone has a pass, I don't think the impact on the epidemic will be massive,” he said.
Hospital occupancy rates still high
In previous phases of the pandemic, the government used the figure of 3,000 Covid patients in intensive care (ICU) to determine whether or not to introduce extra restrictions.
While ICU admissions have fallen by 9 percent in the past week and Covid deaths in hospitals by 10 percent, pressure on hospitals remains high with 3,235 Covid patients in intensive care.
So is this the right time to be lifting restrictions?
“What counts are hospital admissions,” says Amouyel, adding that “vaccination limits the risk of developing a severe form of the disease to 90 percent, hence the importance of being up to date with your booster shots.”
He expressed reservations however about dropping the mask on 28 February in places where the vaccine pass is required: "It's a bit early. I will continue to protect myself."
Timetable not guided by data
Some doctors underline there can be no zero-risk, and that France could always back-pedal if the health situation were to deteriorate once more.
But infectious diseases specialist Benjamin Davido is concerned the decision hasn't been based on data in the first place.
"The lifting of restrictions is usually based on figures, scientific arguments. We say from such and such a threshold we remove them, from this one we put them back," he told Le Parisien.
“But this is the first time that this timetable is not guided by any data, it's unprecedented!
"Why the rush?" he wondered. "There are still 31,500 patients in hospital and 3,300 in intensive care. The risk is to end up with a plateau while the situation remains precarious.”
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If the relaxing of restrictions is not motivated by data, it may be guided by upcoming elections.
France goes to the polls in April to choose its next president. Incumbent Emmanuel Macron is not yet an official candidate but is widely expected to make it to the run off on 24 April.
