A new row over Senedd reform has broken out following the publication of a Senedd committee report that says the number of Senedd members should increase from 60 to 96 and that all should be elected by the “closed list” system of proportional representation.
Currently 40 MSs represent “first-past-the-post” constituencies, with the remaining 20 regional seats allocated on a proportional basis. Earlier this month First Minister and Welsh Labour leader Mark Drakeford and Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price announced their parties had agreed that the Senedd should have 96 Members elected by the “closed list” system, under which Wales would be divided into 16 super-constituencies, each with six MSs. You can read more about the arrangement here.
A gender-balanced Senedd would be achieved by a “zipping” arrangement, under which male and female candidates would alternate on their parties’ lists. Today’s report from the Senedd’s Special Purpose Committee on Senedd Reform endorses both elements of the agreement between Mr Drakeford and Mr Price.
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The committee originally had MSs from all four parties represented in the Senedd, but Darren Millar of the Conservatives withdrew at a late stage because his party opposes increasing the size of the institution. The new row centres on Labour’s insistence that from the next election in 2026, all MSs should be elected from a closed party list, giving voters no opportunity to choose the individual candidates they prefer - something the Single Transferable Vote (STV) system of proportional representation allows for.
When Mr Drakeford and Mr Price announced their agreement, they did not explain why they preferred MSs to be elected via the closed list system. Today’s committee report, however, claims that while the closed list would ensure gender balance, STV would not.
Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds, who sat on the committee, rejected that argument, while Plaid MS Sian Gwenllian, another committee member, said she was prepared to compromise on the voting system to get a bigger Senedd. Labour MS Huw Irranca-Davies, who chaired the committee, said: "Our report sets out a plan for a strengthened Parliament which will provide a stronger voice for the people of Wales.
"Today’s Senedd is very different to the institution that was established over 20 years ago. Its powers have increased to meet the ambitions of our modern and proud nation. It can now make laws and set Welsh taxes, issues which affect the lives of every single person in Wales. With greater powers must come greater accountability. We need a parliament that can effectively scrutinise the decisions taken by the Welsh Government, on behalf of the public it serves. The current system doesn’t allow that to be done as well as it should be. We believe reform is essential, and it is achievable by 2026."
Despite increased responsibilities, the current Senedd remains smaller than its other devolved counterparts, with the Scottish Parliament having 129 Members and the Northern Ireland Assembly having 90.
Mr Irranca-Davies added: "The changes we are recommending will be a positive step to making our Parliament better reflective of Wales’ communities. By leading the way on gender quotas, it will mean women – a majority group in Wales – will have certainty of fair representation, which can only lead to better and fairer outcomes for us all. This would further the Senedd’s journey to being better reflective of the experiences, needs and hopes of the population it serves, helping people to feel more included and heard in the democratic process."
But Professor Laura McAllister of Cardiff University, who chaired an expert panel in 2017 commissioned to look at Senedd electoral reform, said some of the committee’s objections to STV on the gender-balance principle were “pretty spurious”. She said: "There’s little evidence in other countries that use STV that male candidates are favoured ahead of women candidates. On the question of female candidates, the evidence that’s been collected by many gender scholars and most notably Dr Peter Allen at Queen Mary University, shows that women candidates are actually not disadvantaged at the ballot box, that once they get selected as candidates on the ballot paper, they have very similar opportunities as men to be elected under STV.
"Beyond that, we have found that women candidates can actually perform better, especially those who have come through positive action like quotas or zipping or any of those schemes, and have more positive outcomes in that more of them become spokespeople or committee chairs or cabinet or shadow cabinet members and so on. That's quite an interesting case for quotas."
Prof McAllister said STV was a system that could easily have quotas built-in through candidate quotas and zipping, adding: “I think it’s a bit disingenuous to criticise STV from the perspective of a threat to diversity. That hasn’t come into play based on evidence of STV systems operating elsewhere. I’ve already said publicly that the closed list [system] is a pretty poor alternative to what our expert panel recommended, ie STV or flexible list.
"In terms of voter voice and voter choice it's a weaker system than the one we currently use because you’re removing the directly elected part of ‘first-past-the-post’ in the AMS system. AMS has either flaws of course and I would not defend the status quo. Also the d’Hondt system [used to allocate seats to parties in line with their proportion of the overall vote] favours the parties that are already elected and that have a presence in the democratic institution - in this case the Senedd.
"The Tories’ recent criticism got this wrong actually - they suggested it favoured Labour. Well it only favours Labour as the biggest party currently. Were the Tories to do as well as they potentially could in the future, then it would favour them as well in terms of the number of seats they gained from votes cast. And the same for Plaid, which is why I think closed lists have been vaguely palatable to Plaid as well but let’s not pretend ‘closed list’ is a good PR system. There is a risk that it could undermine public goodwill towards electoral system change too - currently, research has shown there’s a consensus in favour but it is clearly fragile.”
The committee report will be debated in the Senedd on June 8.
