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Dieter Kurtenbach

Dieter Kurtenbach: Thoughts on 49ers' playoff matchup with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers

The NFL and its partners have to be beaming right now.

First the 49ers — football's dominant force on the West Coast — played the Cowboys in the playoffs. Ca-ching!

Now, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers — one of the premier brands in the NFL — host the Niners?

The good stuff just keeps flowing our way.

Last week's game looked clear in foresight and was messy in practice. This game is a tough read ahead of kickoff. The Niners are hoping it's anything but straightforward once the game starts, though, because they are underdogs for a reason.

There will be plenty of injury reports throughout the week that can sway this contest, but at the start of the short week for the Niners, I have a few more thoughts on two teams that have re-developed a true, organic rivalry over the last few seasons and their matchup in Wisconsin:

Aaron Rodgers is awesome. The sooner that's admitted, the faster we can get on with the breakdown.

There simply isn't a coverage that he can't destroy and his old problem of holding onto the ball too long — something the 49ers took full advantage of the last time these teams met in the playoffs — is no longer an issue, as evidenced by his carving up the 49ers' defense way back in Week 3 and so many games since then.

Rodgers' weakness?

He knows he's awesome.

It's a good thing that the Niners are a team that has shown no quit in the past, because Rodgers could well provide San Francisco an opportunity to get back into the game by simply being lazy with the lead.

Rodgers hasn't sold a play-action all year. He checks into plays that seemingly have a higher level of difficulty, simply because he has the ability to execute those plays. When he has a lead — and my goodness has he held many of them this season — he has shown the propensity to coast.

He's a rhythm quarterback, too, so his ramping down is a big deal.

Now, this might only matter more for folks who are getting the Niners and the points, but if the Niners play the full 60, they might just find themselves back in a game Green Bay controls the whole way. It's one game script, but something to keep in mind.

Rodgers is a true Triple-A quarterback.

And no, that's not a pejorative term. This has nothing to do with baseball.

No, this has to do with the three A's for quarterbacks. The first two are required to be good in the NFL. The third is what separates the good from the great.

The first two A's are awareness and accuracy. It doesn't matter how talented you are if you have no idea what's happening in front of you, and if you can't deliver a ball on the mark and on time, you're not going to last long as an NFL quarterback.

If you have both of those things, you then get the final A: Arm.

Not only is Rodgers in total control of the passing game and delivering passes with a precision that you don't even see in video games, he also has the easiest arm strength in the game. His ability to put it anywhere on the field within inches of his intended target all against good defense is stupefying and, to put it in the most straightforward terms, if he has a good game the Niners have no chance.

Rodgers is nearly indefensible both on and off the field.

The Niners have been blessed for a second straight week to play a team that has no idea how to defend outsize zone run plays — the foundation of San Francisco's offense.

The Packers have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, but the advanced numbers and Pro Football Focus ratings don't tell the full story.

The truth is that they're pretty good against inside runs. They're thick and strong up the middle and their linebackers don't have to move too much, so they can make tackles.

But those big, thick boys cannot get outside and Rashan Gary, for all of his pass-rush prowess, isn't going to stop the Niners (or anyone else) from winning on the edge.

The Packers allowed 4.7 yards per carry this season against a schedule that didn't run the ball all that well.

Elijah Mitchell didn't play in Week 3 when these two teams met in a Packers win, but he'll be on the field Saturday and the Niners should run all over Green Bay, just as they did Dallas last week and the Rams (in the second half, at least) in Week 18.

Kyle Shanahan offenses love to target linebackers — I've only mentioned this in every game breakdown for the last five years.

So 49ers, meet Kris Barnes, who will be Shanahan's target of torture Saturday.

Barnes isn't good against the run, nor is he good in coverage. At least his linebacking partner De'Vondre Campbell can lay claim to being average at both.

Green Bay runs zone defenses. Cover 3, predominately but some Cover 4 and Cover 6 in there, too. That's their defensive identity and it puts a lot of stress on linebackers in coverage and safeties in the run game.

Neither party is equipped to face a full game of Shanahan's offense.

The Niners are a slant-heavy team in the pass offense, and the Packers are susceptible to the slant, even with Jaire Alexander, one of the best corners in the NFL likely to play Saturday. If Jimmy Garoppolo can play a clean game — and at this point, we should all be done trying to predict that guy — the Niners should get close to 400 yards against the Pack.

It's a small thing, and a totally inconsequential thing, but my goodness, what a great uniform matchup this should be, again.

And after last week's sartorially brilliant game between the Cowboys and Niners?

We're truly blessed.

It's such a shame that the winner of this game gets to face the Buccaneers' monstrosities or the Rams' try-to-hard "bone" colored uniforms.

We were so close to having it all.

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