SANTA CLARA, Calif. — The 49ers’ have the NFL’s best defense this season.
That’s not up for debate anymore.
But with Jimmy Garoppolo’s season-ending injury and rookie Brock Purdy taking over as the Niners’ first-string quarterback, it’s also beyond debate that the Niners’ defense cannot slip — even a little bit — in the final five weeks of the regular season and, perhaps, beyond.
Under normal circumstances, an NFL team’s Super Bowl hopes are pinned on the play of the quarterback.
That’s why the 49ers brought in Garoppolo for another season. He was insurance for Trey Lance. But Purdy wasn’t seen as an insurance policy for Garoppolo — he’s just the backup.
Pinning the Niners’ hopes and dreams on the quarterback won’t work anymore (if it ever did). Not with Purdy at the helm. No starting rookie quarterback has ever led a team to a Super Bowl berth.
No, the 2022 Niners’ Super Bowl hopes are now tied to the defense.
The prior 10 years of offense-first NFL football tell us that’s a death sentence. History tells us the Niners’ title hopes were dashed when Garoppolo exited the game. But given the way that this Niners’ defense is playing and the state of the NFL today, the 49ers’ lofty goals might still be alive.
Sunday, we saw the 49ers’ model for how to win with a rookie, seventh-round quarterback at the helm: The Niners are going to run the ball a bunch (even if it’s not terribly successful) and dink-and-dunk in the pass game. The only time Purdy is going to be empowered to make throws downfield will be on third-and-long.
It’s not a terribly different model from the usual, though Garoppolo was making some big-time throws this season.
The 49ers are just asking Purdy to not lose a game. Sunday, he did that, averaging 0.1 expected points added per play. In a vacuum, it was a perfectly unremarkable performance. Knowing the circumstances, it was a triumph.
The Niners will gladly sign up for five more games of that kind of play from Purdy. Now’s no time to be greedy.
It is time for the defense to take another step forward.
Because as good as this defense has been, it’s possible they can be better.
The return of Arik Armstead gives me optimism. Putting him in the middle of the defensive line provided a serious boost to a unit that had lost serious juice in recent weeks without him.
Now, I will concede that Miami’s offensive line troubles are responsible for Nick Bosa’s three-sack game Sunday if you concede that Bosa is a markedly better player with Armstead on the line.
Add in the Niners’ excellent linebackers and a secondary that is outstanding against the run and proving opportunistic against the pass, and you have a full unit worthy of praise and possibly a deep run in the postseason.
Lost amid the grief and chaos of Garoppolo’s injury was the fact that the Dolphins had scored at least 30 points in the four games prior to Sunday and yet only managed two touchdowns at Levi’s Stadium, both coming on big, broken plays.
The Dolphins needed their quick-hit ability — no offense in the NFL has more — to score Sunday. Methodical scoring drives — the kind that wins in December and January football — were nowhere to be found against this Niners’ defense.
Perhaps San Francisco’s defense has learned the lessons taught by the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 7. Perhaps the Chiefs are uniquely suited to tear up this Niners’ defense. Either way,
If any other team was supposed to make the Niners’ defense’s heads spin, it was Miami. Outside of the two big plays, they averaged 4.1 yards per play Sunday.
San Francisco turned Miami over four times on Sunday, too — three interceptions and a forced fumble recovered by the Niners.
The Niners’ offense scored 23 points. The defense added 10 with late turnovers deep in Miami territory.
That’s the formula. The Niners’ offense can’t be expected to score 30 points a game, so the Niners’ defense will either have to hold opponents under 20 or score some points of their own.
I don’t think that’s an outrageous ask.
And while it leaves the margin between winning and losing razor-thin, the formula could take the Niners further than you might think.
We’re in December, but scoring is still down, year-over-year, across the NFL. Last season, five teams averaged 29 points per game or more. This season, only one team can boast that.
It’s never a good season to lose your top two quarterbacks, but it appears to be a good year to have a really good defense.
The Niners have that.
And so while this season could fall apart in so many ways — if that defense holds together, the Niners still have a shot.
