The 49ers are playing with house money and that makes them dangerous, so dangerous they could find themselves in the Super Bowl.
At one time this season, making the playoffs was such a stretch for this team — the NFL once had their odds at 0.4 percent — that anything seems possible now.
They're in the playoffs. They've won a game, as an underdog on the road. What's to say they can't rattle off a couple more and get themselves to Sofi Stadium in L.A. on Feb 13?
The 49ers' 23-17 victory in Dallas last Saturday was excruciatingly tense. And the reward for that victory is a showdown with the No. 1 seeded Green Bay Packers and quarterback Aaron Rodgers in the frigid cold of Wisconsin on Saturday night. The second-half temperature is expected to be seven degrees. (And no, that's not Celsius.)
The 49ers are 5 1/2 point underdogs. Bookmakers in Las Vegas and beyond are giving them a one-in-three chance of winning. Given the few ways San Francisco can win this game and the many routes Green Bay could take to victory, a one-in-three chance sounds about right to me.
But any gambler knows to be wary of the player at the table with a big stack of chips, no matter what that player's ability is.
The Niners have their flaws — plenty — but they're that player with the big stack of chips. They have nothing to lose (except for the feeling in their fingers and toes) and everything to gain. Oh, and they're coming into the contest on a great run of luck.
Yes, these 49ers are dangerous. They might not have the best quarterback or home-field advantage in this game, but they might be built for this exact moment. They are well-suited to play "January Football."
This brand of football is the 49ers' core identity no matter the month. It's about running the ball, stopping the other team from running the ball, controlling possession, and, most of all, being tougher than your opponent.
We saw it play out down the stretch of this season. Behind a bruising offensive line — and supported by one of the NFL's best defenses — the 49ers have run the ball as well as any team in the NFL in recent weeks, with the duo of Deebo Samuel and Elijah Mitchell creating a bit of the always-successful thunder and lightning effect.
It's the brand of football the 49ers rode in their last postseason run.
In 2019, the 49ers won two home playoff games en route to Super Bowl LIV, running for an average of 235 yards per game in those contests — an absurd number.
In fact, in those two games, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo needed to complete only 17 passes — combined. He attempted only eight passes in the victory over Green Bay in the NFC championship game.
January football wins. Winning a playoff game in the cold might as well be a requirement for winning a title. Last year's Super Bowl champs, Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Bucs, had to win in Green Bay. You have to go all the way back to 2010 to find a Super Bowl champ that didn't need to win a playoff game in the cold; the New Orleans Saints played two games in a dome and then won the Super Bowl in South Florida.
Beating the Packers will be no easy task, and the 49ers' formula for victory is exceptionally challenging. They need to control the game, run the ball, and not turn the ball over.
Simple stuff, but it has been five weeks since the Niners played a zero-turnover game against a quality opponent. Even then, in the overtime win at Cincinnati — the 49ers caught a lucky break. A Garoppolo pass that should have resulted in an easy interception was dropped by the Bengals' safety.
Green Bay doesn't make mistakes like that. Under coach Matt LaFleur, the Packers have a 30-0 record when they win the turnover battle.
And Rodgers simply does not turn the ball over. He hasn't lost a fumble all season and he hasn't thrown an interception since Nov. 14. He's on a 20-touchdown, zero-interception run going into Saturday. Garoppolo has eight touchdowns to eight interceptions over that stretch.
There's a reason Green Bay is favored to win the game. For every reason, the 49ers could win the game, there are 12 reasons that favor Green Bay, starting with Rodgers, the guy wearing No. 12. Then again, Dallas was favored against the 49ers last week. How'd that work out?
Yes, the Niners have made this season far more challenging than it needed to be, but they have found a way to win anyway. They have made this season a success, no matter what happens Saturday.
And what happens Saturday might surprise two-thirds of the people making odds.
